Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark, and market risk aversion surged sharply. The yen appreciated by 6% within six weeks, technology stocks weakened, and investor nerves were frayed. Last July, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike caused Bitcoin to plummet by 20%, and now a similar scenario has reappeared.
In the current market situation, hedge funds are using Bitcoin spot ETFs, particularly ibit and cme futures arbitrage to gain excess returns. However, as the basis approaches US Treasury rates, once Bitcoin falls and the arbitrage space narrows, funds are likely to close positions during US stock trading hours, further pushing Bitcoin prices down.
The spot price of Bitcoin has fallen, and its ETFs are also struggling. According to Four Side Investor data, yesterday, $516 million flowed out of US Bitcoin ETFs, $78 million flowed out of Ethereum, and both fbdc and ibit saw outflows of $150 million each. The bull market driven by ETFs is experiencing capital withdrawal; whether this is coincidental or a signal of a market trend shift needs to be observed through changes in the cryptocurrency space, US stocks, leverage, and Bitcoin strategy positions and market capitalization.
The market premium rate for Bitcoin strategy has dropped from 3.4 times last year to 1.6 times, making it harder for Michael Celery to finance Bitcoin purchases, while market trading activity and confidence are declining. However, the options market's annualized performance remains around 8%, and traditional arbitrage funds and leveraged returns are still attractive, with financiers not fully withdrawing.
The impact of the bybiy hacker attack incident continues to ferment, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin experiencing significant declines this week. After the market opened on Tuesday, the downward trend did not stop, with a two-day decline of 20%, putting considerable pressure on the market. CMC data shows that the altcoin index is only 25, with only 25 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperforming Bitcoin. The decline in Bitcoin has put general pressure on altcoins. The bybit hacker incident and related sell-offs of Solana are still affecting the market, coupled with the unlocking of related tokens and increased market supply, which could trigger a sell-off wave.
Currently, many traders are long on Bitcoin, and if the market continues to decline, new funds may flow in quickly. However, the altcoin market lacks new trends, and future movements remain uncertain.