Intraday price fluctuations: intense battle between bulls and bears
On March 5, 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced dramatic volatility. The morning price briefly fell below $0.19265, with an intraday decline of 3.59%.
However, it rebounded strongly to $0.19945, an increase of 3.56%, with trading volume surging from $1.881 billion to $2.811 billion. This 'V-shaped reversal' indicates intense market contention between bulls and bears, and the short-term direction remains unclear.
Observing the K-line chart, the price frequently tests support and resistance levels within the narrow range of $0.19 to $0.20, with trading volume also showing corresponding fluctuations. In the morning session, the market displayed a 'price drop and volume shrink' trend, which often indicates a quiet trading activity and a wait-and-see attitude among market participants. However, in the afternoon, the market changed dramatically, with the 'price increase and volume increase' phenomenon indicating a sudden enhancement in buying momentum and a significant rise in market activity.
The Williams indicator currently does not show that the market has entered overbought or oversold territory, suggesting that the market may still be in a relatively balanced state. However, it is worth noting that the MACD histogram has released some signals indicating that bearish momentum is gradually weakening.
Key technical signals: contention for support levels and potential breakout patterns
DOGE's current price is fluctuating around the key psychological level of $0.20, with intense competition between both sides. If DOGE can successfully stabilize above $0.20, its short-term target may point to the resistance level of $0.244. However, from a technical perspective, the daily moving average system (especially the 5-day and 10-day moving averages) is still in a bearish arrangement, and the death cross signal has not yet been resolved, indicating that the market's technical aspect remains weak.
It is worth noting that Dogecoin has long been oscillating within a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. If the upper trend line of this pattern (around $0.25) is effectively broken, it could trigger a rally of over 500%, with price targets aimed directly at $1 or even $2. On the other hand, if DOGE falls below the support level of $0.19, it could trigger a new wave of selling, with the price potentially further dropping to $0.15.
Market sentiment differentiation: whales bottom-fishing vs. retail investors exiting
On-chain data shows that since March, whale addresses have been continuously increasing their holdings of DOGE, with daily purchases exceeding 1 billion coins, primarily concentrated in the price range of $0.19-$0.20. This behavior can be seen as institutional recognition of DOGE's current bottom area.
In stark contrast to the positive attitude of whales, retail trading volume has declined by 30% year-on-year, and the discussion heat about DOGE on social media has also dropped to a freezing point, reflecting a significant lack of confidence from ordinary investors in DOGE.
Despite this, the current market sentiment bears a striking resemblance to the state before the bull market in 2021. If DOGE can leverage external events such as the 'Trump Administration Efficiency Department (DOGE)' hype, it is entirely possible to reignite the fervor for Meme coins and lead the market into a new wave.
Dancing on the edge of a knife or waiting for dawn?
Short-term traders: Focus on the range of $0.19-$0.20; a break above $0.20 could allow for a small long position, with a stop-loss set at $0.185.
Long-term holders: If the price stabilizes above $0.25, consider adding positions in batches, targeting $0.7.
Risk warning: Beware of the 'no-volume rebound' trap and avoid high-leverage operations.