$BTC The current state of the market is a bounce. And look how nervous and twitchy it is, just like a futures trader. So, the decline due to tariffs has been playing out since February when they were announced. Before the 'Death cross' intersection, there is usually a decline and a bounce.
So, what do we have now? On April 4, unemployment data is released; if it's below 4.1%, the rate will definitely not be lowered in May, if it's above, then there are chances (albeit small).
To avoid guessing, let's assess the available data: American incomes have increased, while spending and consumer sentiment are falling, hiring is being reduced, oil production is ramping up, gold as a safe-haven asset is rapidly rising, and investors are leaving.
Honestly, it looks super for a crash and a reset:
1. less spending, lower inflation, closer to a Fed rate cut;
2. more oil production, managing conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar and oil indices are decreasing, prices are falling, and the Fed rate can be lowered;
3. illegal immigrants are being removed, hiring is being reduced, unemployment is above 4%, below 5%, the Fed rate can be lowered.
4. tariffs are being imposed, investors are leaving, local producers are twitching, stocks are falling, which means the Fed rate can be lowered, and they will run for loans to optimize production.