Technical analyst Dr. Arnout ter Schure argues that Bitcoin's brutal correction is almost over. Using the Elliott Wave Principle, he notes the drop has followed its anticipated pattern precisely, even exceeding downside targets briefly to near $60,000.
Crucially, two fundamental metrics now align with the technical picture to suggest a floor is forming: the price is near the core cost of mining, and it has reached a statistical extreme seen at prior major lows. While a final dip into the high-$50K range is still possible, the "weight of the evidence" points to an imminent and significant bottom.
This setup is viewed not as a crisis, but as the necessary final shakeout before the launch of the next major bull run, with a long-term target exceeding $160,000.
Key Points:
Bottom in Sight: The analysis concludes Bitcoin is in the final stages of its corrective decline.
Target Zone: A bottom is expected in the high $50,000 to low $60,000 range, with two key supports:
Mining Cost Floor: The ~$58,740 electricity cost to mine one BTC provides a strong historical support level.
Statistical Extreme: The recent price plunge reached a -2 standard deviation ("Z-Score") event, a classic signature of bear market exhaustion.
Pattern Completion: The price action has followed a predicted Elliott Wave "impulse pattern" down and is now completing a larger "irregular expanded flat" correction.
Historical Precedent: The current ~54% pullback fits the typical 40-55% retracement seen in Bitcoin's past major 4th-wave corrections.
Bullish Forecast: Upon completion of this bottoming process, the next major bullish wave (Wave-v) is projected to target at least $164,000.
