Fed Minutes Spark Debate: Is Crypto's Next Big Rally on Hold?
On February 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January 27–28 FOMC meeting, reigniting speculation across financial markets—including the cryptocurrency space. A widely shared social media post claimed the Fed had just given the “GO signal” for crypto’s next leg up, citing “ongoing rate cuts,” “75 basis points toward neutral,” and “three additional cuts as baseline.” The enthusiastic message concluded: “Don’t bet against the Fed.”
However, a close reading of the actual minutes paints a far more cautious—and divided—picture.
What the Minutes Actually Say
The Fed decided unanimously to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling no immediate change in policy. Key takeaways include:
“Almost all” participants supported holding rates steady, reflecting concern that inflation remains above the 2% target despite recent progress.
A minority of officials were open to considering further rate reductions only if incoming data showed clearer evidence of sustained disinflation.
Several members explicitly noted that the risks of re-accelerating inflation could justify pausing cuts—or even resuming hikes—should price pressures prove persistent.
The committee emphasized a data-dependent approach with no preset path. There was no consensus around aggressive easing, nor any reference to “75 basis points toward neutral” or a firm commitment to three more cuts.
Market-implied pricing (via CME FedWatch Tool) currently reflects roughly two cuts priced in for 2026, with significant uncertainty around timing and magnitude. The “three cuts as baseline” narrative appears to stem from earlier 2025 analyst projections or options-market bets rather than the February minutes themselves
Why the Bullish Interpretation Spread Quickly
Crypto communities often interpret any dovish Fed language as a green light for risk assets. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, while increased liquidity tends to flow into speculative markets. The post’s repetition and rocket emojis tapped into this sentiment, amplifying reach on platforms like X.
Yet the minutes lean neutral-to-hawkish compared with late-2025 expectations. Inflation stickiness, a still-resilient labor market, and uncertainty around potential policy shifts under new administration influences have kept Fed officials guarded.
Immediate Market Reaction
Bitcoin hovered around $66,000–$67,000 in the hours following the release, down roughly 1–2% intraday.
Ethereum and major altcoins showed similar mild pressure.
The U.S. dollar index ticked higher, adding headwind to crypto priced in USD.
This reaction aligns with a market that had already priced in a pause and was hoping for stronger dovish signals that never materialized.
Outlook for Crypto
The Fed’s current stance does not scream “extraordinary cash flow into markets” as the viral post suggested. Instead, it points to a higher-for-longer environment until inflation convincingly returns to target.
That said, several supportive factors remain:
Global liquidity conditions are still accommodative relative to 2022–2023 peaks.
Institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries) continues to grow.
On-chain metrics for Bitcoin and Ethereum show resilience despite price consolidation.
If upcoming data (February CPI, March employment report) surprise to the downside on inflation, the door could reopen for dovish repricing—and a potential crypto rally. The next FOMC meeting on March 17–18, 2026 will be closely watched.
The viral claim overstated the Fed’s position. The minutes do not deliver a clear “GO signal” for aggressive easing or a guaranteed crypto pump. Policymakers remain cautious, divided, and firmly data-dependent.
Crypto traders should treat the narrative with skepticism, verify primary sources (FOMC minutes, dot plot, Powell press conferences), and avoid chasing hype without confirmation. In volatile markets, betting against misread central-bank signals can be costly.
