Guys are you happy to see $BTC back above 70K level? And we all waiting for the FOMC announcement today to find out the next. Seeing Bitcoin fighting to hold the 72K to 74K range today is a breath of fresh air but don't let the green candles make you jump the gun. The Fed just held rates at 3.64% which is exactly 364 bps. No surprise there but the "next" move depends entirely on how Powell handles the jobs data in the presser. Remember US lost 92,000 jobs in February. If the Fed stays higher for longer while the labor market is bleeding they are practically walking us into a Sahm Rule recession. We are only 0.27% away from that 0.50% trigger that historically ends the party and sends us to the floor.
On the technical side we have been rejected at the 76K twice now and the price is already showing weakness by dropping back to $72,000 before the announcement. If the FOMC presser doesn't give us the pivot everyone wants then watch for a hunt. There is 4 billion dollars in liquidations sitting down at $69,000 and the whales love to flush the late longs before the real move. This fits perfectly with the Elliott Wave theory of a truncated fifth wave where the top is cut short by bad macro news. I am watching the $71,400 pivots as my line in the sand. If we hold that then the dream of 90K stays alive but if we break then I am looking at the $52K recession floor for a much better entry.
Are you guys longing this dip or are you waiting for the 2:30 PM ET presser to decide? Please let me know.
