【 Federal Reserve "vocal hawks"! BTC broke below 73000, is the real risk just beginning?】
Late at night, the dust settled, and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on March 18, 2026: maintain interest rates, only plan to cut rates once this year, raise inflation expectations, and add a risk warning for the Middle East. Dot plot (interest rate path): end of 2026: 3.4% (only cut rates once this year, 25bp), end of 2027: 3.1% (cut rates once again, 25bp), 2028 and long-term: 3.1% (long-term interest rates raised by 0.1 percentage points compared to December).
After the meeting, Powell released a strong hawkish signal: emphasized that without a sustained drop in inflation, there will be no rate cuts, and mentioned the possibility of rate hikes!
The previous analysis mentioned that my personal judgment on the market is somewhat pessimistic, one core reason being the worry that this meeting would send more negative news without cutting rates, and unfortunately, this came true.
Bitcoin reacted early, breaking below the support of 73000 and accelerating, currently hovering around the support level of 70000【如图一】
Overall, Bitcoin still has some support here, it may briefly dip below 70000, but there is a small rebound demand, and the probability of bouncing back up to confirm the trend line break is still quite high, the current position is around 74000【如图二】
Looking at the larger cycle, the daily top divergence has formed, a 2-day line has one bearish engulfing three bullish candles, all pointing to the expectation that this rebound may be nearing a peak, hence small rebounds are not highly recommended for entry【如图三】
In terms of operations, if you followed our advice to lock in profits by reducing positions in the 74000 to 75000 range, you can patiently wait for support opportunities at the lower edge of the descending flag, which is around 66000, this position is both offensive and defensive, with a relatively high risk-reward ratio.
But be cautious, if the flag's bottom edge is effectively broken, a small waterfall may occur, and a new low is highly probable; the range of 58000 to 59000 will be a better opportunity to enter for a rebound!
Operation suggestion: wait for a rebound to 74000 USD, consider exiting, then buy back at a lower level
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH
Late at night, the dust settled, and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on March 18, 2026: maintain interest rates, only plan to cut rates once this year, raise inflation expectations, and add a risk warning for the Middle East. Dot plot (interest rate path): end of 2026: 3.4% (only cut rates once this year, 25bp), end of 2027: 3.1% (cut rates once again, 25bp), 2028 and long-term: 3.1% (long-term interest rates raised by 0.1 percentage points compared to December).
After the meeting, Powell released a strong hawkish signal: emphasized that without a sustained drop in inflation, there will be no rate cuts, and mentioned the possibility of rate hikes!
The previous analysis mentioned that my personal judgment on the market is somewhat pessimistic, one core reason being the worry that this meeting would send more negative news without cutting rates, and unfortunately, this came true.
Bitcoin reacted early, breaking below the support of 73000 and accelerating, currently hovering around the support level of 70000【如图一】
Overall, Bitcoin still has some support here, it may briefly dip below 70000, but there is a small rebound demand, and the probability of bouncing back up to confirm the trend line break is still quite high, the current position is around 74000【如图二】
Looking at the larger cycle, the daily top divergence has formed, a 2-day line has one bearish engulfing three bullish candles, all pointing to the expectation that this rebound may be nearing a peak, hence small rebounds are not highly recommended for entry【如图三】
In terms of operations, if you followed our advice to lock in profits by reducing positions in the 74000 to 75000 range, you can patiently wait for support opportunities at the lower edge of the descending flag, which is around 66000, this position is both offensive and defensive, with a relatively high risk-reward ratio.
But be cautious, if the flag's bottom edge is effectively broken, a small waterfall may occur, and a new low is highly probable; the range of 58000 to 59000 will be a better opportunity to enter for a rebound!
Operation suggestion: wait for a rebound to 74000 USD, consider exiting, then buy back at a lower level
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH