Technical Analysis:
1️⃣СCI - below -100. The decline is still continuing. We are in a holding pattern, waiting for a bottom-up move to confirm the trade.
2️⃣RSI - around 30. It has already bounced off the extreme values, but does not yet confirm an actual upward movement.
3️⃣Levels:
🔸78.6% Fibonacci on h1 (=2017) + 161.8% on m15 (=2009) + first wave on h4 = a full set of downward waves h1 (=1994) + increased volume 3 (=1975) - a very strong level and potential reversal opportunity.
4️⃣Larger Timeframe (h4) - a full set of waves h4 = 1883, nothing else interesting so far.
5️⃣Price movement forecast - on the chart.
Entry, stop, take profit:
🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout from below the 78.6% Fibonacci level (2017)
🔸Stop: Preliminary for increased volume 3 = 1975
🔸Take profit: TP for increased volume 1 (2150) or increased volume 2 (2073)
🔸Risk/reward: 3.3 at the highest TP
🔸Execution: Within a week
Cancellation
🔸Sharp decline after breaking through the strong level to 1883.
Fundamentals:
1️⃣ Fear & Greed Index: 8–12 (Extreme fear) → 🟢 Plus for ETH in the medium term. General market signal.
2️⃣ ETH/BTC: ~0.0303 (at multi-year lows) → 🟢 positive for ETH.
Potential for mean reversion.
3️⃣ Funding Rate (ETH): negative, similar to BTC → 🟢 positive for ETH.
Shorts dominate – potential for a squeeze upside.
4️⃣ ETH ETF Flows: +$160.8M for the week since March 17 → 🟢 positive for ETH. BlackRock launched a staking ETF.
5️⃣ Exchange Net Flow: 336K ETH outflow for the week, reserves at a minimum of ~16M ETH → 🟢 positive for ETH. Whales are not selling.
6️⃣ Staking Rate: 30.6% of supply (~37.2M ETH), 60-day queue → 🟢 positive for ETH.
High staking demand.
8️⃣ Gas Fees: 0.1–0.5 Gwei → 🔴 negative for ETH.
Weak activity on the mainnet.
9️⃣ MVRV (ETH): 0.87 → 🟢 positive for ETH.
This indicator fell deeper than BTC. Historically, such signals have led to mega-growth.
🔟 Geopolitics: Iran ultimatum → 🔴 negative for ETH. The most significant negative: risky instruments under pressure. Traders are shifting to oil and gas.
Conclusion: 👈🏻 Medium-term gains for ETH. A sharp rise requires the end of the war in Iran.
