This is a Weekly chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from Bitstamp, covering August 2011 through mid-April 2026. You see, after half a century in this BUSINESS, the asset doesn't matter—the bars always tell the same story of human greed and fear.
1. DATA SUMMARY
Timeframe: Weekly
Total Bars: 766 weeks
Date Range: 2011-08-15 to 2026-04-13
Latest Close: 75,641
All-Time High in Dataset: 126,272 (Week of 2025-10-06)
Average Bar Range: Approximately 3,800 points (highly skewed by recent volatility)
2. TREND ANALYSIS
The PRIMARY TREND is up from the 2011 inception, but the INTERMEDIATE TREND is currently in a complex corrective phase. We saw a major blow-off top in October 2025 at 126,272. Since then, the market has been making lower highs and lower lows until the recent bottom at 59,930 in February 2026.
The trend is currently Reverting. We have broken the sequence of lower highs, but we are back-testing major breakdown levels. Period.
3. KEY LEVELS (Retracements from 126,272 High to 15,479 Low)
Before we do anything, we look at the math of the last major cycle.
100% (ATH): 126,272
78.6% retrace: 102,485
66.7% (2/3): 89,300 (The "Last Stand" for the Bulls)
50.0% Balance: 70,875 ← WE ARE HERE
33.3% (1/3): 52,410
0% (Major Low): 15,479 (Nov 2022)
4. RECENT SWING ANALYSIS
Major Swing High: 126,272 (Oct 2025)
Major Swing Low: 59,930 (Feb 2026)
Measured Move: The decline was 66,342 points.
The Reaction: The current rally from 59,930 has reached 78,384. This is a recovery of 18,454 points, which is almost exactly 27% of the decline—very weak.
5. IMPULSE BAR ANALYSIS
Look at the week of 2026-02-02. The range was 19,371 points (High 79,301 to Low 59,930). This is a massive Impulse Bar.
Rule: The high of a bearish impulse bar (79,301) becomes MAJOR resistance.
Price Projection: Since we closed below the midpoint of that bar at the time, it projected a move to the 60k handle, which we hit.
Time Projection: That bar was 11 weeks ago. We are approaching a 13-week Fibonacci time square.
6. REVERSAL BAR STATUS
We have a BUY SIGNAL in play. You see, the lowest bar of the recent move was the week of Feb 2, 2026 (Low 59,930). The high of that bar was 79,301. We haven't taken that out yet. However, the immediate swing low was 64,955 (March 23). We have now exceeded the highs of the last four weeks.
7. CURRENT PRICE ACTION ASSESSMENT
The market is currently wrestling with the 50% retracement level (70,875). If Bitcoin cannot close and stay above 71,000, this entire rally is just a "dead cat bounce" in a new bear market. Period.
Volume has been declining on this move up from 59k. That is NOT what you want to see in a healthy bull market. It tells me the "insiders" aren't buying; they are just letting the market drift up on lack of selling pressure.
8. TRADE SETUP
Direction: NEUTRAL (Waiting for confirmation)
Long Trigger: A weekly CLOSE above 79,301 (High of the Impulse Bar).
Short Trigger: A break below 70,584 (Current week's low).
Stop Loss: If long, 64,955. If short, 78,384.
Target: If the 79,301 resistance breaks, the target is 93,000 (the 2/3 retrace). If we fail here, we are going back to test 59,930 and likely 52,410.
9. COMMENTARY
In 50 years, I’ve seen this pattern a thousand times. A massive run to 126k followed by a 50% "haircut" to 60k. The market is now at the "Point of Recognition." If it’s still a bull market, it MUST regain the 80,000 level immediately. If it stalls here at 75k, the inventory is still too heavy, and the professionals will start hitting the bids again.
The chart says we are at a critical balance point, and the low volume suggests the rally is suspect. Period.
$BTC Livermore’s Accumulation cylinder shows super cycle is unfolding — $200K target.
If this plays out, we would be entering Stage 8.
MACD just confirmed a bullish cross and turning green. You gotta flip bias now.
Don't fade it!