Today, June 12, the epochal SpaceX IPO (SPCX) kicks off on Nasdaq with an initial price of $135. While retail investors, driven by blind FOMO, are storming the order books, major players are operating on cold, mathematical calculation. Scattered public channels are already screaming about a "Black Swan," but in reality, what we are witnessing is a textbook, surgically precise distribution of assets from institutionals to the crowd.
Let’s break down the technical setup and the hidden interconnections between the stock market, gold, and crypto.
📉 The Stock Market & Gold: Artificial Overheating
The Final of Elliott Wave 5: The global stock market (S&P 500) is sitting at the absolute peak of its final bullish impulse. Hourly charts have already locked in a global change of character (CHoCH) to the downside, and yesterday’s green bounce was artificially engineered by algorithms via sweeping liquidity from the Weak Low. The market was held up "on demand" to establish a positive backdrop specifically for the day of the listing.
Gold Capitulation (XAUUSD): The ultimate safe-haven asset has gone through a harsh purge, capitulating at the very bottom around the 4010–4020 marks, shaving off all long positions. The current bounce attempt to 4179 (-0,75%) turned out to be weak—the price merely filled an hourly imbalance and is bending back downward, confirming that capital is being sucked out to fuel the equity hype.
The 2x Take-Profit Plan: Venture funds that entered SpaceX during private rounds at an average price of around $100 have no plans for long-term holding in a loss-making company (which posted a net loss of $4.28B for Q1 due to massive AI infrastructure spending on xAI and Colossus). The most logical scenario is the first 1–2 hours of a retail-driven pump toward the psychological $200 mark, where a clean 100% profit will be locked in against retail buy orders. It is no coincidence that Goldman Sachs allocated a record 30% of the volume to retail—smart money desperately needs buyers to exit into cash.
⚡ Crypto Market (TOTAL): The Illusion of Strength and Grim Reality
While the crowd celebrates local green candles on individual altcoins (such as the +26% bounce of HMSTR from its accumulation bottom), the overall crypto market cap chart (TOTAL) is flashing preparations for a cascading plunge:
Upside Cap: The total crypto market cap has already shrunk by -$19.45B over the past 24 hours (down to 2.138T). The attempt at a local reversal via an hourly CHoCH upward slammed straight into a monolithic resistance wall of EQH / Strong High around 2.16T. Horizontal volume profiles clearly show that a massive seller is sitting at the top, absorbing all bullish enthusiasm with limit orders.
The Domino Effect: Crypto is caught in a vice. Bitcoin is being held steady around $61,200, completely ignoring local growth attempts. Market history proves that once the massive ship of the stock market begins to sink following institutional profit-taking in SpaceX, all free liquidity will instantly evaporate from the crypto market. High-risk altcoins will be the first and hardest hit on the way down.
💡 Strategic Conclusion
"The crowd buys attention, while long-term investors buy time."
Today, retail is buying attention at the absolute highest prices. Systemic investors are buying time right now: they will let the crowd get stuck in top-market equities and sh*tcoins, wait out the full capitulation, and then calmly scoop up these exact same assets for pennies on the dollar in six months using a DCA system once the dust completely settles.
The best stance for today is cold-blooded observation with stablecoin cash at the ready. The trap is set to snap shut.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).