BlockBeats News, January 14th, in its digital asset OTC market review, market maker Wintermute analyzed: The traditional four-year cycle performance of Bitcoin in 2025 was weak, and the altcoin cycle almost disappeared. This is not a temporary adjustment but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it highly depends on the following three key outcomes, with at least one of them needing to occur:ETFs and Crypto Treasury (DAT) companies will expand their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, the US spot BTC/ETH ETF has liquidity highly concentrated in a few large-cap tokens, leading to a narrower market width and severe performance differentiation. Only when more coins are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries can broader market participation and liquidity be restored.Major assets like BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., show strong performance again, generating widespread wealth effects. The 2025 traditional "BTC rise followed by altcoin capital inflow" cycle has fundamentally broken down, with the average altcoin uptrend cycle lasting only about 20 days (compared to about 60 days the previous year), and most tokens continue to decline due to unlock selling pressure. Only when top assets surge again can capital potentially overflow downwards, activating the altcoin market.Retail investors' attention returns to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating in the market, but their funds are primarily in dollar-cost averaging S&P 500, AI, robotics, quantum computing, and other high-growth themes. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (plunges, bankruptcies, liquidations), coupled with crypto's underperformance compared to the traditional stock market in 2025, have significantly reduced many people's attraction to the "get rich quick" aspect of crypto. Only when retail investors massively return can the market regain its fervent momentum.

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