I’ve reduced risk across ~90% of my portfolio
S&P 500 right now: ~7,000
I’ve been in markets long enough to know when conditions change
Here’s what pushed me to step aside:
First, I didn’t touch my long-term BTC position from 2014–2016
Also kept metals and core real estate exposure
This is basic risk management
Does this mean a crash starts tomorrow?
⚠️NO.
But the probability of a local top is high, and a -15% to -20% reset is realistic
Pay attention to what insiders are doing, not what they’re saying
Private market leaders are lining up exits at the same time
👇Key names moving toward 2026 listings:
- SpaceX
- OpenAI
- Databricks
- Anthropic
This isn’t about needing liquidity
This is about timing distribution at peak multiples
We’ve seen this pattern before
📝Historical parallels:
- 2000: Dotcom excess
- 2021: SPAC frenzy
Same behavior, different narrative
Shares get offloaded at valuations that can’t be defended long-term
100x revenue doesn’t magically become reasonable
Now look at the cost side of the AI trade:
-> ~$400B projected capex
-> ~<$25B in realized revenue impact
To justify this burn rate, the sector needs:
-> ~$2T in incremental revenue by 2030
That’s not a base case
That’s a stretch target built into current prices
This is how bubbles form
And the exits aren’t just in tech
Zoom out
Capital positioning right now:
Buffett is sitting on a massive cash pile
He’s distributing into strength
He’s not chasing dips
He’s preserving optionality
Then there’s the 2026 refinancing wall
A lot of companies only survived because money was free
That era is over
What’s coming due:
Large maturities
Higher rollover costs
Tighter credit conditions
Most balance sheets are not built for this environment
Defaults don’t start loud
They start quietly, then spread
I’m fine missing the last 5-10% of upside
I care about being liquid when pricing resets
When conditions flip, I’ll say it publicly
Until then, risk is asymmetric to the downside
Positioning > predictions
Most will react late
A few will already be ready
