I have been holding Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) for a considerable time, starting from levels around $130 for SOL and $3,200 for ETH. Since then, the broader crypto market has entered a sharp downside phase, driven largely by liquidity sweeps and weakening risk sentiment.
Recently, Bitcoin liquidity was concentrated around the $74,000 zone, which has already been tapped. Last night, BTC traded as low as $72,900, confirming that a major liquidity pocket has been cleared. This move has increased short-term uncertainty but also brings clarity to the next critical phase for the market.
Key Scenario: Bitcoin Holding $75K–$78K
If Bitcoin can stabilize and hold within the $75,000 to $78,000 range for the next few days, there is a strong chance that the broader market could see a relief recovery. Such consolidation would allow ETH and SOL to regain strength gradually, as panic selling eases and sidelined capital begins to re-enter selectively.
In this scenario, a full and healthier recovery may be possible around June or July, potentially aligned with expectations of a rate cut under a new Federal Reserve leadership, which could improve overall liquidity conditions across risk assets.
Risk Scenario: Breakdown Below Key Levels
However, if Bitcoin fails to remain stable in this range, the downside risks increase significantly. In that case, Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 region, which would likely put heavy pressure on altcoins. Under this scenario:
Ethereum could retrace toward the $1,840 to $1,700 range
Solana could decline further, potentially testing levels near $50
This bearish outcome is not guaranteed, but based on current market structure, liquidity behavior, and momentum, there is an estimated 65% probability of such a move if BTC loses structural support.
Daniel BNB Thoughts
At this stage, Bitcoin’s ability to hold and stabilize remains the single most important factor for the entire market. Short-term volatility is expected, and patience is critical. Long-term holders should closely monitor BTC’s behavior around key ranges rather than reacting emotionally to intraday moves.
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