Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has broken below a key high‑timeframe support range the same zone that formed the early‑April bottom. As I mentioned in my recent updates, that breakdown was my signal to hedge 50% of my spot exposure to reduce short‑term downside risk. That decision continues to serve its purpose.

Where We Are Now

Price is now approaching a major high‑timeframe support range one that acted as strong resistance throughout 2024 and aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci POI. This confluence makes it a potential bounce zone where a local bottom could form.

However, I’m not rushing to unwind hedges just yet.

Before scaling out, I want to see clear evidence of strength, such as:

- A durable bounce off this high‑timeframe support

- A reclaim of the previously lost support range that defined the early‑April bottoming structure

Until those conditions are met, patience remains the priority.

Why the Current Strategy Still Makes Sense

For weeks, I emphasized that as long as BTC struggled to reclaim the $92K high‑timeframe support range, the best approach was:

- Maintain a diversified portfolio across multiple sectors

- Keep a moderate cash allocation

- Hedge spot exposure if a breakdown occurred

This conservative framework allowed us to participate in upside while preserving a safety net in case of a structural failure—exactly what we’re seeing now.

My Strategy Going Forward

I’m keeping things simple and disciplined:

- No changes to allocations for now

- Maintain exposure to defensive sectors

- Keep hedges active

- Begin scaling out of hedges only if BTC confirms a bottom in the $66K–$68K range

This approach allows defensive positions to offset weakness in risk assets, while hedging continues to reduce downside volatility.

The Real Question Isn’t “Are We in a Bear Market?”

Whether this is a bear market or a deep correction is less important than the bigger picture:

How do we protect the profits accumulated throughout the bull cycle?

For the last two years, the focus was on maximizing gains. Over the last few months, my focus has shifted toward capital preservation.

That’s why I’ve consistently emphasized:

- Diversification

- Avoiding leverage

- Maintaining a conservative, risk‑aware outlook

This environment rewards discipline, not aggression.