As of February 5, 2026 (around 11:45 AM PKT), Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $70,617, down about 7.8% in the last 24 hours and over 20% weekly—hitting lows not seen since November 2024. Weak demand, ongoing ETF outflows, and macro headwinds like stock market sell-offs are driving the panic. This weekly technical analysis breaks down key levels, indicators, and scenarios using real-time data to help you make sense of the chaos and spot potential trades.

Weekly Chart Breakdown: Sellers Dominate

The downtrend kicked off in October 2025, with consistent lower highs and lower lows. A solid downward trendline has rejected multiple rallies, and on-chain data shows liquidity drying up with spot demand at multi-month lows.

  • Price Action & Key Levels: BTC hit a daily low of $70,130 today, probing $70,000 support (linked to 2025 lows and 161.8% Fibonacci extension from prior highs). If it breaks, targets shift to $68,750 or even $63,000. Resistance feels miles away at $78,900-$81,000.

• Indicators & Moving Averages: Price is well below the 50-week SMA (~$87,000) and 20-week SMA (~$77,000), locking in bearish bias. RSI is oversold at ~27, hinting at seller exhaustion for a possible short-term bounce, but MACD's bearish cross and declining volume warn of more downside.

• Patterns & Market Sentiment: A head-and-shoulders pattern has fully activated, fueling the plunge, while symmetrical triangles on lower timeframes amp up volatility. Sentiment is tanking due to regulatory fears and capital fleeing to safer assets like gold, but extreme oversold conditions could spark a relief rally if positive news hits (e.g., ETF inflows resuming).

Potential Scenarios: Crash or Rebound?

  1. Bearish (Most Likely): A break below $70K could accelerate to $68K-$63K, or in extremes, $50K if global markets worsen—matching on-chain bear signals like high exchange inflows.

  2. Bullish (Worth Monitoring): If $70K holds with a volume surge, expect a rebound to $78K-$81K, potentially setting up for $100K+ by mid-2026 as institutional adoption picks up steam.

This is for informational purposes only—crypto is volatile, so always use risk management. At this critical point, Bitcoin could be forming a cycle low or a bull trap. What's your take on the next move?