There’s a massive problem buried inside the U.S. Treasury market — and almost no one is talking about it.
Look at the chart.
That giant blue spike isn’t future debt.
It’s real money coming due in 2026.
Not 2030.
Not 2040.
2026.
Here’s what most people are missing 👇
That debt was issued when interest rates were basically zero.
Now it has to be refinanced in a high-rate world.
Same debt.
Completely different cost.
In simple terms: America loaded up on cheap money.
Now that cheap money is expiring — and it must be replaced with expensive money.
What happens next?
💥 Interest costs explode
💧 Liquidity gets pulled out of the system
🔒 Financial conditions tighten everywhere
And when that happens… something breaks.
There are only a few paths forward:
Cut spending
Raise taxes
Or quietly let the dollar weaken
And once the dollar weakens, nothing stays priced the same.
Assets reset. Risk reprices. Reality hits.
This isn’t a one-day headline risk.
It’s a structural problem — a refinancing wall this big doesn’t just hit bonds.
It hits: Stocks 📉
Housing 🏠
Credit 💳
Crypto ₿
You can already see the stress building.
Even “routine” Treasury auctions now look like pressure tests:
$58B in 3Y → Feb 10
$42B in 10Y → Feb 11
$25B in 30Y → Feb 12
Settlement → Feb 17
This is how slow-burn crises start.
Not with panic.
Not with breaking news.
But with quiet pressure…
Until suddenly, it’s everywhere.
Most people won’t notice until markets are already repriced.
I’ve studied macro for over a decade.
I’ve flagged major market tops before — including the October BTC ATH.
This setup feels very familiar.
Follow if you want.
Turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning before this becomes a headline everyone pretends they saw coming. 🔔📉
