$BTC has been on a rough ride lately. It’s down for four consecutive months — something we haven’t seen since 2018. After analyzing the market closely, I finally figured out the real reason behind this crash — and it’s shocking.
The $300 Billion Liquidity Issue
Here’s the core problem. According to Arthur Hayes, about $300 billion in liquidity recently disappeared from the market, and most of it ended up in one place: the Treasury General Account (TGA).
Data shows the TGA balance increased by $200 billion. It’s clear that this movement is directly affecting Bitcoin.
How This Impacts Bitcoin
When the government adds cash to the TGA, liquidity is drained from the market. Bitcoin, being highly liquidity-sensitive, falls when liquidity is pulled out and rises when liquidity is injected.
Last year, when they drained the TGA, Bitcoin got a temporary boost. Right now, the opposite is happening — liquidity is being sucked out, and Bitcoin is responding immediately.
Banks Are Feeling the Pressure
Another red flag is the failure of Chicago’s Metropolitan Capital Bank, the first US bank collapse of 2026.
This signals a global liquidity crunch, putting pressure on banks — and when banks struggle, crypto markets feel it too. The correlation is undeniable.
Global Market Uncertainty
Investors are jittery across all markets. Risk assets, like Bitcoin, are being sold quickly as uncertainty rises. The speed of this outflow is what makes the current situation more alarming than before.
The Government Shutdown Factor
The US government is currently facing a shutdown. Key agencies, including ICE, aren’t getting funded. Political deadlock increases market uncertainty, and uncertainty tends to crash crypto prices fast.
Stablecoin Yields Under Attack
Stablecoin yields are also under scrutiny. A new campaign is targeting these yields, claiming they could drain $6 trillion and hurt small businesses. Banks are lobbying aggressively against crypto, seeing it as a threat to their dominance.
The Real Motivation
Much of this is fear-mongering. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been singled out by the media, accused of giving consumers yields that banks can’t offer. In reality, traditional banks are simply trying to protect their monopoly and prevent competition.