Following a significant market crash in February 2026, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have revised their long-term theoretical price target for Bitcoin to $266,000. Despite Bitcoin plummeting approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 to roughly $63,000, the bank maintains that the asset's structural investment case relative to gold has actually strengthened.
Revised Forecast and Targets
JPMorgan's current outlook combines long-term optimism with a cautious near-term view of the "unrealistic" higher targets during the current sell-off:
Long-Term Theoretical Target: $266,000 (up from a late 2025 forecast of $240,000). This is based on Bitcoin matching the total private sector investment in gold on a volatility-adjusted basis.
Medium-Term "Fair Value": Analysts previously pinpointed $170,000 as a target for 2026, though the recent crash has shifted focus to finding a definitive "bottom".
The Price "Floor": Some models within the bank identify $94,000 as a historical production-cost floor, though current market prices have broken significantly below this level during the February crash.
Key Drivers for the Revised Outlook
JPMorgan cites several technical and macroeconomic factors for their continued bullishness despite the crash:
Gold vs. Bitcoin Volatility: The volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to a record low of approximately 1.5. This makes Bitcoin appear more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis as a macro hedge.
Market Deleveraging: The bank noted a major deleveraging cycle in crypto derivatives, particularly perpetual futures. This reduces the risk of further forced liquidations that typically exacerbate crashes.
Institutional Shift: Analysts believe the divergence—where gold rose 60% in 2025 while Bitcoin struggled—has left Bitcoin looking "cheap" relative to traditional safe-havens.
Market Context: The February 2026 Crash
The revised forecast comes amid one of the sharpest pullbacks in crypto history:
Price Drop: Bitcoin fell more than 12% in a single day on February 5, 2026, sliding to levels not seen since late 2024.
Wider Impact: The crash triggered a $12.4 billion quarterly loss for Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR), a major corporate holder of Bitcoin.
Causes: Weak investor sentiment, a broad sell-off in technology stocks, and massive institutional outflows from crypto ETFs contributed to the $2 trillion total loss in crypto market cap since October 2025.