bitcoinnewalltimehigh

Market Overview: Is Bitcoin Deeply Undervalued?
​The report analyzes whether Bitcoin has reached a market "bottom" using a technical framework called the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) model. The overall conclusion is that while Bitcoin is in a corrective phase, it has not yet reached the extreme "undervalued" levels seen in previous bear markets.
​1. The "Drawdown" Comparison
​Analyst Axel Adler points out that the current drop in Bitcoin's price is historically shallow.
​Current Cycle: The price has dropped roughly 27% to 33% from its peak.
​Historical Cycles: In the past, Bitcoin bear markets saw much deeper crashes:
​2011: -92%
​2015 & 2018: ~ -82%
​2022: -75%
​Takeaway: This suggests that institutional capital (like ETFs) might be stabilizing the market, but it also means we haven't seen the "total collapse" that usually marks the end of a bear cycle.
​2. The CVDD Model Explained
​The CVDD model tracks when "old coins" (held for a long time) move. Historically, when the price touches the Base CVDD line, it signals the absolute bottom of the market.
​Current Price: Approximately $91,000.
​Base CVDD Support: Currently estimated around $46,600.
​Analysis: Since Bitcoin is trading at nearly 2x its base floor, the market has not entered a "capitulation" phase (where long-term holders panic and sell).
​3. Technical Consolidation
​Bitcoin is currently stuck in a "tight range" between $90,000 and $91,000.
​Weak Structure: It is trading below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are sloping downward. This is generally a bearish (negative) signal.
​Low Volume: There is a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers, meaning the market is waiting for a major catalyst.
​4. Key Price Levels to Watch
​Support ($88,000 – $90,000): Bitcoin must stay above this level to avoid a deeper drop into the mid-$80,000s.
​Resistance ($95,000 – $98,000): A decisive recovery is only likely if Bitcoin can break above this zone and reclaim its moving averages.
​Summary: The article suggests that while Bitcoin is cooling off, the "pain" isn't over yet compared to history. We are in an early-stage bear cycle or a consolidation phase, rather than at a definitive market bottom.
​Would you like me to explain how the CVDD model is calculated or provide more details on the specific price support levels?