egrag

XRP is once again under heavy pressure, with large holders accelerating their exit just as market #sentiment weakens.
Key Takeaways:
Whales dumped nearly 200M XRP in 48 hours.
Large holders are still reducing exposure, not accumulating.
716 big transfers signal a major move is coming.
Losing the $2 support could deepen the decline.
Analysts are split between a Wave 4 correction or a continued downtrend.
On-chain data shows nearly 200 million XRP unloaded during the weekend, a sizable reduction that coincides with one of the sharpest two-day declines in whale balances this quarter. Wallets holding 1 million–10 million XRP have been the most aggressive distributors, according to Santiment data highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez.
Technical Conditions Turn Fragile as XRP Approaches Key Support
Technical indicators currently reinforce the bearish narrative. The #MACD on the daily timeframe is below the signal line, showing fading momentum with no visible bullish crossover forming yet.
At the same time, the RSI sits around 41, reflecting weak buying interest and leaving XRP in a neutral-to-bearish zone rather than oversold. Until momentum flips, bulls have limited control of short-term price action.
The timing is critical. #XRP has already been sliding toward the bottom of its multi-month range, and the recent whale activity adds fuel to an already bearish technical backdrop. If negative momentum continues, analysts warn that a retest of the $2 support area becomes increasingly likely — and a breakdown below that level could expose the market to deeper losses.
The network is witnessing an unusual surge in high-value on-chain activity, with 716 transactions exceeding $1 million each recorded in just a few days — the highest reading in four months. Historically, similar bursts have preceded major price swings, though the direction hinges on whether whales are accumulating or distributing.
While some traders argue that the spike could indicate strategic positioning ahead of a rebound, current data shows whale holdings decreasing rather than expanding. Until that behavior shifts, XRP’s momentum remains tilted to the downside.
Elliott Wave Debate Splits Analysts on XRP’s Next Move
Not all market analysts agree on the bearish interpretation. Commentator #EGRAG CRYPTO has challenged the widespread rejection of the current Elliott Wave count, arguing that XRP is still shaping a valid Wave 4 corrective phase and only needs a close above Wave B to ignite the Wave 5 impulse rally.
The analyst suggests the structure is being dismissed not due to technical invalidation but because it contradicts market bias.
A Market Approaching a Decisive Turning Point
With whales actively reshaping supply distribution and strong opposing viewpoints among analysts, XRP is entering a pivotal stage. Whether the token breaks below $2 or reverses into a new macro impulsive rally may depend largely on whether whales continue unloading — or abruptly switch to accumulation.
#Market_Update
$XRP

XRP is showing signs of a potential major rally, with analysts highlighting a multi-year chart structure that could push the token toward $10.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $2.25, up 1% in the past day and narrowing its weekly loss to 11.5%. Technical observers note a key retest at $1.955, a level that previously acted as resistance before XRP broke higher in earlier cycles.
Analyst #Cryptollica a shared a chart on X, showing a long-term pattern that suggests a return to the $1.955 support zone may set the stage for a continuation move toward $10.
Chart Nerd later amplified the setup, prompting discussions on #XRP’ s potential next leg up. Interestingly, Ali Martinez earlier projected a similar setup, forecasting a possible dip to $1.90 before the token resumes its uptrend, reflecting over 10 months of consolidation.
XRP Surge Historical Context
Cryptollica’s historical chart shows that XRP’s 2014–2018 cycle followed a four-part structure. The first phase, from 2014 to 2017, was characterized by a long-term upward trend through 2015, followed by consolidation, while XRP moved within a rising channel, steadily forming higher lows.
This period of measured consolidation continued until March 2017, paving the way for Phase 2, which saw a strong breakout to $0.07 from $0.0042.
Phase 2 quickly gave way to Phase 3 in May 2017. During this stage, XRP experienced a sharp climb, peaking at $0.3988 before entering a consolidation period that lasted from May to November 2017.
The conclusion of this consolidation marked the start of Phase 4, during which the price surged to an all-time high of $3.84 in 2018.
The XRP Cycle is Repeating
Analysts see a similar structure forming in the 2018–2025 cycle. The first phase began with XRP down to $0.1140 in March 2020 after its peak in 2018. XRP rebounded with higher lows as it consolidated between $0.1 and $0.7.
The pattern persisted until November 2024, when XRP broke above the $0.50 level, surging to $2, signaling the start of Phase 2. The uptrend continued until $3.40 in January 2025, marking stage 3, before retreating to around $2, entering a period of sideways consolidation.
Analysts now view this ongoing consolidation as the final stage of Phase 3, setting the stage for the concluding phase. Looking ahead to Phase 4, Cryptollica expects #XRP to experience a renewed upward push similar to the surge from late 2017 to early 2018 if it retreats to $1.955.
According to the analyst, this move could drive prices to $10, representing a roughly 412% gain from the support level. For context, the Phase 4 rally in 2017/2018 produced a dramatic 1,642% increase. Interestingly, he has been consistent on this prediction based on this price pattern.
Egrag Crypto Sees XRP at $10
Market analyst #EGRAG has also highlighted that the token is currently at the base of a descending triangle, drawing comparisons to similar patterns in 2017 and 2021.
Based on this setup, he projected potential gains of 306% to 1,404%, implying a price range of $10 to $37. EGRAG also noted that XRP has historically staged significant moves within four to six weeks following such patterns.
#XRPRealityCheck $XRP

Analiza realizată de Egrag Crypto se bazează pe o perspectivă pe termen lung, exponențială pentru $XRP , nu pe volatilitatea pe termen scurt. El susține constant că XRP este pregătit pentru o mișcare masivă care reflectă ciclurile sale anterioare.
Aspectele Pozitive Ale Cazului Bullish:
Spargerea Macro: Egrag subliniază că o închidere confirmată deasupra unui cluster Fibonacci superior critic, notabil în jurul $3.40, ar semnala o "spargere macro super-bullish".
Nivel Crucial: Nivelul decisiv imediat de urmărit este o închidere deasupra $2.60, care se aliniază cu retragerea Fibonacci de 0.5 pe graficul lunar.

As XRP gains against #Bitcoin , a market analyst has presented four XRPBTC macro simulation models of the possible directions the pair could take from here.
Notably, the crypto market has dropped sharply since October, and XRP has moved in the same direction with a decline of more than 25% over this period.
XRP now trades near the lower end of the $2 range.
XRPBTC Simulation Models
However, despite the broader downturn, XRP has held up better than Bitcoin this month. BTC has seen an even steeper pullback, which has allowed XRP to gain 3.71% against the crypto firstborn in November. With this strength, the XRPBTC pair now stands at 0.00002374.
Amid the ongoing trend, market analyst EGRAG Crypto released a simulation that presents four possible macro outcomes for the XRPBTC pair.
He stressed that this commentary does not seek to predict the future. Instead, he built the models to show multiple possibilities regarding XRP’s direction from here. After reviewing the data from all four scenarios, he arrived at a mean XRP value of $11.
Specifically, EGRAG explained that his analysis uses different XRPBTC ratios linked to specific chart structures. Each structure supports its own technical logic.
Descending Triangle Breakdown and Breakout
For Scenario A, EGRAG considered a possible breakdown from the descending triangle. Notably, this event would lead to an XRPBTC ratio of 0.00001030.
Based on this ratio, a BTC price of $100,000 would place XRP at $1.03, while a BTC price of $30,000 would put XRP at $0.309.
According to the market analyst, this remains the bearish option, but it still fits within the range of realistic macro corrections. However, a positive breakout of the same descending triangle is not out of the question.
This leads to Scenario B, which considers a bullish breakout from the descending triangle.
Such a move would lead to an XRPBTC ratio of 0.000048. According to EGRAG, this type of breakout usually marks the first major expansion wave for XRP. With this ratio, BTC at $100,000 would lift XRP to $4.80, and BTC at $170,000 would raise it to $8.16.
XRP Falling Wedge and Bull Pennant Breakout
Meanwhile, Scenario C focuses on a break above the macro falling wedge. This longer-term bullish structure leads to a ratio of 0.000073.
#EGRAG called this a high-probability path if XRP manages to break out of the multiyear compression phase. At this ratio, BTC at $100,000 would put XRP at $7.3, while BTC at $170,000 would move XRP to $12.41.
Notably, his final setup, Scenario D, considers a bullish pennant breakout, which he believes is the strongest structure on the macro chart.
This model would result in a ratio of 0.00013. Under this, XRP would reach $27 if BTC climbed to roughly $207,700. If BTC instead remained at $100,000, XRP would stand at $13.
According to EGRAG, these scenarios do not represent XRP price predictions.
However, all the models combine to present a full view of potential price directions, with the average result across all simulations placing the XRP price at $11.
#USStocksForecast2026 #BTC☀️ #xrp
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