fedreport

Market analysts are increasingly warning that the risk of the Federal Reserve resuming or accelerating its balance sheet reduction — often referred to as quantitative tightening (QT) — is rising this October. This shift comes as inflation expectations remain above target and liquidity in the U.S. financial system shows early signs of strain.

According to recent Fed communications and market data, several policymakers have hinted that the central bank may maintain a tighter liquidity stance for longer, even as discussions of future rate cuts grow louder. The balance sheet, currently holding around $7.2 trillion in assets, has been shrinking gradually since mid-2022, but new reports suggest the pace could increase slightly through Q4 2025 if economic growth remains stable.

The renewed focus on QT is largely driven by inflation dynamics. While headline inflation has cooled from last year’s highs, core prices remain sticky, and policymakers are wary of reversing progress by reintroducing excess liquidity too soon. At the same time, money market conditions and Treasury yields have stayed elevated, putting additional pressure on risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.

From a market perspective, even a modest acceleration in the Fed’s balance sheet reduction could trigger ripple effects. Liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically moved inversely to QT cycles, as reduced dollar supply often leads to lower speculative demand across global markets. In contrast, safe-haven assets like gold and short-term Treasuries tend to attract inflows.

Institutional traders are already adjusting. Data from futures markets shows increased hedging activity around U.S. interest rate exposures, while funding costs for short-term borrowing have ticked higher. This suggests that professional investors are preparing for tighter liquidity conditions — even if the Fed does not formally raise rates again in 2025.

From my view, the rising probability of continued balance sheet reduction doesn’t signal panic — but it does reflect caution. The Fed appears determined to avoid overstimulating the economy, even if that means a slower recovery in asset prices. For risk markets, including crypto, this could translate into a choppy but disciplined fourth quarter, where patience and capital management matter more than speculation.
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Un nou raport de la Banca Federală a Statelor Unite din Kansas City sugerează că schimbările demografice ale lumii ar putea genera o cerere masivă pe termen lung pentru Bitcoin și alte active digitale.
Populația îmbătrânită va alimenta creșterea activelor
Conform raportului din august al Fed-ului, o combinație de populații îmbătrânite și creșterea averii globale va stimula cererea totală de active cu până la 200% din PIB între 2024 și 2100.
Aceasta înseamnă că, pe măsură ce lumea devine mai în vârstă și mai bogată, mai mult capital va circula în active — inclusiv criptomonede precum Bitcoin ($BTC). Fed-ul observă că această tendință continuă creșterea pe termen lung a acumulării de active, determinată de schimbări demografice și economice.