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you’ve been around long enough, this part of the cycle feels familiar. The structure hasn’t changed much. Bitcoin still moves in these broad four-year waves, and halvings sit right at the center of it. Every time the block reward gets cut, new supply slows down. That part is mechanical. What follows is behavioral.
Looking at the Arkham, I see the same rhythm repeat: accumulation after a crash, a steady run into the halving, a stronger push after it, and then the unwind.
Not immediately
But eventually
The halving reduces issuance, surebut what really matters is how the market reacts to that scarcity. Traders front-run it, narratives build, and price stretches further than it should. Then it corrects. That pattern has held up so far, even as institutions and macro flows start to blur the edges a bit.
The most recent halving was on April 2024. Before that, May 2020. If you look at what happened after both, the sequence lines up almost too neatly. Strong rally into and after the halving. Then, roughly a year later, things start to roll over. This time was no different. Bitcoin pushed above US$126 k in October 2025. That was the top. Since then, it’s dropped more than 46%, landing back in the US$60–70 k range. That’s not noise. That’s a proper drawdown. The kind you usually see in the middle of a cycle reset.
And the timing?
That’s where it gets interesting. Analysts aren’t calling for a bottom just yet. Most of them are looking further out. Bitbo data points to Q4 2026 as the likely window. Tony Research is even more specific—US$40–50 k, sometime between mid-September and late November 2026. If you go back and check 2018 and 2022, both cycle lows showed up roughly 12 months after the top. Not exact. But close enough to matter.
Evidence from analysts and on-chain data
This isn’t just one view. You’re seeing alignment across different types of analysis. Q4 2026 is where the bearish trend likely ends. His base case sits around US$45k. But he also left room for downside. In a stressed macro environment, he doesn’t rule out something as low as US$16k.
That’s not a prediction. It’s a reminder of how far these markets can stretch when liquidity dries up.
Then you’ve got CryptoQuant, looking at it from a cycle math perspective.
Instead of guessing, they mapped previous halvings and counted forward. The numbers they came up with are specific: 777 days, 889 days, and 925 days after the April 2024 halving. That gives you three potential bottom dates
4 June 2026
24 September 2026
30 October 2026
Not one exact point. A range. Which is usually how these things play out. Their takeaway is simple: somewhere between June and December 2026 is where the low likely forms.
Bitcoin tends to go up for three years, then correct hard in the fourth. If you follow that logic, 2026 is the down year.
No surprises there
The drop from US$126 k into the low-US$60 k range already matches the scale of previous corrections. And historically, it takes about six to twelve months for a real bottom to form. Not a bounce. A bottom.
Put all of that together, and the picture is consistent. Different methods. Same window.
Charting the cycle
The 2021 peak stands out. So does the October 2025 high. Both marked clearly. And right now, price is sitting in the phase that usually comes after somewhere between distribution and early accumulation. Not fully washed out yet.
The projected bottom window
1 June 2026 to 31 December 2026 sits ahead, not behind. That’s the key point. The yellow band on the chart isn’t where we are. It’s where the data says we’re heading. And if history holds even loosely, this phase still needs time to play out.
The takeaway here isn’t complicated. History isn’t a perfect map, but it’s the best one we have. The four-year cycle hasn’t broken yet. The October 2025 top at US$126 k fits the pattern. The 46% drawdown fits the pattern. And the projected bottom in the second half of 2026? That fits too.
Markets don’t bottom when people start asking if it’s time. They bottom when most stop caring. Narrative follows price. It always has. And by the time the story flips, the move will already be underway.
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