macro

Most Bitcoin market #discussions revolve around demand, narratives, liquidity, or #Macro conditions.
But Bitcoin is one of the few assets with a supply schedule that is fully transparent and algorithmically constrained years in advance.
That makes halvings one of the most structurally important events in the entire crypto market.
So I decided to start this research page from the supply side — by #analyzing Bitcoin halving cycles, their timing, and the market behavior around them.
Disclaimer for brave new world: Not financial advice.
Bitcoin halving observations:
• November 2012 — BTC around $12
• July 2016 — around $650
• May 2020 — around $8.8k
• April 2024 — around $65k
• April 2028 -
At each halving, Bitcoin’s price has been higher than during the previous one.
Observations (not predictions) on Bitcoin price action around halvings:
~18 months before the first halving, BTC rallied from $0.01 to $32 — roughly +320,000% ($32 was the local top).
~12 months before the first halving, BTC corrected from $32 to $2 — roughly -94% ($2 became the cycle bottom).
November 2012 — halving.
12 months after the first halving, BTC rallied from $2 to a new high of $1,242 — roughly +62,000%.
That move lasted until November 2013, around 32 months before the second halving.
~13 months before the second halving, BTC corrected from $1,242 to $166 — roughly -87%.
July 2016 — halving.
~18 months after the second halving, BTC rallied from $166 to $19,800 — roughly +12,000%.
That move lasted until December 2017, around 30 months before the third halving.
~18 months before the third halving, BTC corrected from $19,800 to $3,100 — roughly -84%.
May 2020 — halving.
~18 months after the third halving, BTC rallied from $3,100 to $69,000 — roughly +2,100%.
That move lasted until November 2021, around 30 months before the fourth halving.
~18 months before the fourth halving, BTC corrected from $69k to $16k — roughly -77%.
April 2024 — halving.
~18 months after the fourth #Halving , BTC rallied from $16k to $126k — roughly +700% (current local top so far).
That move lasted until October 2025, around 30 months before the fifth halving.
Possible assumptions if historical patterns continue:
I. BTC drawdowns became progressively smaller:
94% → 87% → 84% → 77%.
If that trend continues, the next correction could end up shallower than -77%.
In price terms, that would imply something above roughly $30k BTC (equivalent to about a -76% drawdown from $126k).
II. Previous cycle bottoms formed before halvings: 12 → 13 → 18 → 18 months.
Assumption #1:
If the correction once again bottoms at least 12 months before the next halving, that would point to around April 2027.
Assumption #2:
If the cycle follows the previous two halvings and bottoms ~18 months before the next halving, a possible bottoming window would be around October 2026.
Assumption #3*:
If the number of months between the correction bottom and the halving increases again — for example by roughly another 6 months, similar to the earlier shift from ~12–13 months to ~18 months — then 18 + 6 = 24 months between the bottom and the halving.
If the next #halving happens around April 2028, then subtracting 24 months would point to around April 2026 as a possible moment when the correction could stop.
*This particular #assumption — specifically using +6 months rather than any other number — is logically weak and somewhat forced due to the extremely small sample size.
III. Post-halving expansion phases lasted: 12 → 18 → 18 → 18 months.
If that pattern continues, $BTC could theoretically continue trending upward until around October 2029 — or longer.
IV. Returns from cycle bottoms kept declining: 62,000% → 12,000% → 2,100% → 700%.
If that trend continues, future upside from the cycle bottom may continue compressing in percentage terms.
V. Previous cycle tops formed roughly: 18 → 32 → 30 → 30 months before the next halving.
This may — or may not — support the idea that October 2025 ($126k) was a local cycle top and the beginning of a longer correction phase.