📉 WHY BITCOIN CRASHED & HOW TO ANTICIPATE THE NEXT BULL RUN

$BTC

Complete Analysis – February 2026

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🔍 PART 1: WHY DID BITCOIN CRASH?

Contrary to popular belief, this recent drop is NOT a "crypto crisis." It's a traditional markets event in disguise.

🎯 THE TRUTH BEHIND THE FEBRUARY 5, 2026 CRASH

Jeff Park (CIO of Procap) proved that:

✅ This was NOT a crypto sell-off – It was a TradFi deleveraging event

✅ ETFs did NOT see outflows – IBIT recorded +$230M net creations and +$300M across all spot ETFs

✅ The culprit? The CME Bitcoin basis trade – Basis spreads surged from 3.3% to 9% in 24h, forcing hedge funds to massively unwind

✅ Context: Goldman Sachs called February 4th the "worst day for multi-strategy hedge funds in years" (z-score 3.5)

Translation: Crypto investors didn't sell. Traditional institutions reduced risk everywhere, and Bitcoin was caught in the crossfire.

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📋 THE 6 FACTORS BEHIND THE CORRECTION (According to Matt Hougan, Bitwise)

Hougan identifies 6 specific causes of the 90K → 70K drop:

Factor Detail

1. Front-running the cycle Long-term investors sold preemptively to avoid the statistical "bear year" (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026)

2. Attention rotation "Attention investors" rotated toward AI and precious metals

3. Giant liquidations Trump tariffs → largest leverage blowout in history

4. Hawkish Fed Kevin Warsh nomination, seen as the most restrictive candidate

5. Quantum fear Concerns over Bitcoin's unpreparedness for quantum computing

6. Macro risk-off Gold -4%, Silver -20%, Tech stocks falling

But Hougan's conclusion is clear: "Much of the bad news is already priced in."

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⚠️ OTHER CONFIRMED PRESSURES

Standard Chartered (Geoffrey Kendrick):

· ETF investors are sitting on unrealized losses

· 100,000 BTC have left ETFs since October 2025 peak

· Forecast: Test of $50,000 before recovery

On-chain data (XWIN Research/CryptoQuant):

· BTC dropped 46% from $126,000 peak

· $13B in net realized losses – comparable to worst of 2022

· 5 consecutive months of decline – a streak unseen since 2018

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📈 PART 2: HOW TO ANTICIPATE THE NEXT BULL RUN

Good news: All historical "bear end" signals are now aligning.

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🟢 SIGNAL #1: 30 TOP INDICATORS – ZERO TRIGGERED

The MOST IMPORTANT analysis right now:

A trader who has followed 3 complete cycles analyzed 30 bull run top indicators (MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, NUPL, AHR999, etc.).

Result: 0/30 are activated.

Indicator Current Top Zone

AHR999 Index 1.16 4

MVRV Z-Score 2.5 7–10

BTC Dominance 58% < 40%

Fear & Greed Not extreme Extreme greed

Rainbow Chart Green Red

Conclusion: "We are NOT in the top phase. We are in the ACCUMULATION phase before the final acceleration."

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🟢 SIGNAL #2: RAREFIED CONFLUENCE – NETWORK GROWTH + RISK INDEX

Bitcoin Vector (institutional):

Two key indicators are aligning for the first time in years:

1. Network Growth

2. Risk Index

Their convergence HISTORICALLY precedes the biggest rallies.

"The market is becoming more balanced. Network activity now exceeds risk signals."

Add to this a bullish RSI divergence, and the setup for a return to $95,000 is in place.

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🟢 SIGNAL #3: OVERSOLD RSI – FIVE TIMES TESTED, FIVE TIMES BOUNCED

Julien Bittel (Global Macro Investor):

Every time RSI dropped below 30 since 2023, Bitcoin bounced strongly.

This happened 5 times. 5 rebounds.

Projection: If the pattern repeats, $170,000 in 3 months is a plausible scenario.

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🟢 SIGNAL #4: GLASSNODE – SELLING PRESSURE EXHAUSTING

Glassnode data, January 2026:

✅ Long-term holder profit-taking – nearly complete

✅ ETF flows – turned positive again

✅ Open interest – moderate rebuilding, no leverage excess

✅ Options – record expiration, 45% of Open Interest cleared

The bottleneck? Massive resistance between $92,000 and $117,000, where thousands of recent buyers are at breakeven.

The key level: Short-term holder cost basis at $99,000. Return above = restored confidence.

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🟢 SIGNAL #5: THE HALVING CYCLE IS FADING – INSTITUTIONALS TAKING OVER

Bitwise (Matt Hougan):

Paradigm shift.

· Before: Halving → Mechanical bull run

· Now: Institutional flows (ETFs, corporate treasuries) dictate the trend

Consequence:

· Less "parabolic pump followed by crash"

· More "stable, sustained growth"

· 2026 becomes the pivot year where Bitcoin establishes itself as a macro asset

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🟢 SIGNAL #6: MACRO – GLOBAL LIQUIDITY EXPANDING

Global M2 money supply: Rising.

Fed & central banks: Rate cut cycle has begun.

History: 2009, 2016, 2020 – every time global liquidity rebounds, Bitcoin follows parabolically.

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🧭 PART 3: KEY LEVELS TO WATCH FOR RECOVERY

🔴 CRITICAL SUPPORTS (MUST HOLD)

Level Significance

$65,000 Psychological support & 10-year realized price

$60,000 Massive whale buying zone

$50,000 Standard Chartered worst-case scenario

🟢 RESISTANCES TO BREAK

Level Significance

$66,688 Bollinger Mid – first signal

$70,000 Psychological – retail confidence returns

$95,000 Immediate technical target

$99,000 STH cost basis – ALPHA level

$117,000+ New ATHs

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📋 CHECKLIST TO ANTICIPATE THE BULL RUN

✅ WHAT I WATCH EVERY DAY

1. ETF Flow – Sustained inflows = institutions returning

2. BTC Dominance – Break below 50% = altcoin season

3. CME Basis – Sign of basis trade returning

4. RSI 1H/4H – Bullish divergence = hidden momentum

5. Realized Losses – When they dry up, bottom is near

✅ THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR (IN MY VIEW)

As long as the 30 top indicators remain green, there is NO reason to exit.

The real sell signal will be:

· BTC.D < 40%

· MVRV > 7

· Fear & Greed > 90

· Massive ETF outflows

· Your parents talking about crypto

None of this has happened.

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🧠 CONCLUSION

Why did BTC crash?

➤ A perfect TradFi storm: deleveraging, hedge funds, basis trades, and macro rotation.

This was NOT a crypto crisis.

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How to anticipate the bull run?

➤ The data is clear:

✅ 30 top indicators – 0 activated

✅ Oversold RSI – 5/5 historical rebounds

✅ Network Growth + Risk Index – rare confluence

✅ Glassnode – selling exhausted

✅ Bitwise – institutional paradigm shift

✅ Macro – global liquidity rising

This is not the time to panic.

This is the time to accumulate, watch key levels, and patiently wait for the next catalyst.

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#bitcoin #BTC走势分析 #Bullrun #analysis #ETFsApproval #Institutional #Capitulation #BinanceSquare #February2026

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📊 Sources: Procap, Bitwise, Glassnode, Standard Chartered, CryptoQuant, Global Macro Investor, Bitcoin Vector – DYOR – NFA$BNB