The volatility is back. Following the release of the January CPI (Consumer Price Index) data today, February 13, 2026, the crypto market has shifted from "Extreme Fear" to a definitive "Relief Rally." With inflation cooling more than expected to 2.4%, the macro narrative for a potential Fed pivot is finally gaining legs.
Here is a deep dive into the current market structure for BTC and ETH.
🟠 Bitcoin ($BTC ): The Battle for $70,000
Bitcoin reacted aggressively to the CPI print, spiking from the mid-$65k range to briefly touch $69,190. This move invalidated the immediate bearish threat of a fourth consecutive weekly red candle.
Key Technical Observations:
The Support Flip: The most critical task for bulls is to flip the $68,800 – $69,000 zone (the 2021 cycle high) into a solidified support floor. If we hold this level, it signals a structural shift from a correction to a new uptrend.
Liquidation Data: Over $60 million in BTC shorts were liquidated within an hour of the announcement. This "short squeeze" provided the fuel for the initial pump.
Resistance: The next major "supply wall" sits at $71,600 – $72,000. A daily close above this would open the doors for a retest of the $74,500 yearly highs.
Trading View: Watch the DXY (Dollar Index). The dollar is showing weakness post-CPI; as long as the DXY stays suppressed, the path of least resistance for BTC remains upward.
🔷 Ethereum ($ETH ): Catching Up or Still Lagging?
While BTC has taken the spotlight, Ethereum is showing signs of stabilizing after a brutal start to February. ETH is currently hovering near $1,970, attempting to reclaim the psychological $2,000 level.
Key Technical Observations:
Oversold Bounce: The RSI for ETH hit extreme oversold levels (near 24) earlier this week. The current bounce is technically a "mean reversion," but momentum is building.
The $2,050 Ceiling: ETH faces immediate heavy resistance at $2,050 – $2,200. Unlike BTC, ETH still has significant "leverage overhang" to clear before it can target the $2,400 range.
ETF Flows: Keep an eye on the spot ETH ETF net flows. While BTC ETFs saw a return to inflows today, ETH funds have been seeing expanded outflows. A stabilization here is the "missing ingredient" for a parabolic ETH move.
📊 Market Outlook: Q2 2026
The "Soft Landing" narrative is back on the table. If inflation continues to trend toward the 2% target, the market will begin pricing in rate cuts for the second half of 2026.
Bullish Case: BTC maintains $69k, leading to a "FOMO" wave toward $80k by the end of March.
Bearish Case: If the Fed remains hawkish in their upcoming speeches despite the cool CPI, expect a retracement to the $64,500 liquidity pocket.
The Bottom Line
The CPI data has given the market the green light it needed to breathe. However, professional traders should look for confirmation (a daily close above $69k for BTC) rather than chasing the initial green candle.
What’s your move? Are you longing for the breakout or waiting for a retest of the support? Let us know in the comments below! 👇
#bitcoin #Ethereum #cpi #CryptoAnalysis #Fed
