🚨 EL SALVADOR FACES A DECLINE IN ITS BITCOIN PORTFOLIO AS IMF DISCUSSIONS STALL
As of February 13, 2026, the intense Bitcoin initiative of El Salvador is under increased strain. The digital currency assets acquired during President Nayib Bukele's administration have decreased by nearly $300 million since reaching their highest point in late 2025.
The state currently possesses around 7,560 BTC, currently valued at approximately $503 million based on recent market rates. In spite of this decline, government officials continue to follow their plan of acquiring one Bitcoin daily. At the same time, indicators reflecting sovereign risk, such as credit default swaps, have risen to their highest levels in several months, indicating decreasing investor confidence.
To make matters worse, talks with the International Monetary Fund regarding a $1.4 billion loan arrangement have hit a standstill. With bond repayments totaling $450 million due this year, the nation is confronting a crucial financial crossroads.
Portfolio Challenges: Strategy Confronts Market Swings
At its peak valuation in late 2025, El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves were thought to be around $800 million. However, the recent downturn in the market has reduced that estimate by hundreds of millions — at least theoretically.
Though these losses remain unrealized unless the coins are liquidated, they exemplify the risks tied to the volatility of maintaining a digital asset as a major part of national assets.
In an effort to balance the situation, the government recently set aside roughly $50 million for gold acquisitions — a conventional safeguard in times of macroeconomic uncertainty and financial pressure.
IMF Discussions: A Key Hindrance
The second assessment of El Salvador’s 40-month Extended Fund Facility has been on hold since September 2025.
Sources within the IMF have indicated worries that new disbursements might indirectly promote additional Bitcoin purchases instead of fiscal reforms. The absence of a completed review means that the credibility boost usually provided by IMF support is lacking.
Market experts from international asset management firms caution that the absence of IMF backing might diminish investor trust. El Salvador's bonds had staged a remarkable recovery in recent years, showing triple-digit returns — but that resurgence is now under fresh scrutiny.
Debt Pressure Rising
The repayment timeline for the nation heightens the stakes.
• $450 million in bond obligations are due in 2026
• Nearly $700 million is scheduled for repayment in 2027
Increasing levels of credit default swaps indicate that markets are anticipating greater liquidity risks. Observers regard the forthcoming IMF review, expected in March, as crucial for preserving access to capital markets.
Larger Question: Vision or Weakness?
Proponents assert that Bukele’s enduring Bitcoin strategy may ultimately succeed if both adoption and prices recover. Opponents argue that national reserves necessitate stability rather than speculative risks.
The outcome will hinge on three factors:
• The movement of Bitcoin’s pricing
• The proceedings with the IMF
• El Salvador’s capability to handle impending debt responsibilities
At present, the country is at a pivotal juncture where conviction in cryptocurrency collides with fiscal truths.
Disclaimer:
This summary is intended solely for informational purposes and does not qualify as financial, investment, or legal counsel. Bitcoin exhibits significant volatility, and investments in sovereign debt carry considerable default risks. Always perform your own research and seek the advice of a qualified expert before making investment choices.
