Bitcoin's "ultimate" bear market bottom is currently around $55,000, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which said bear market bottoms typically take months to form rather than occur in a single capitulation event.

The firm said bitcoin’s realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets, represents the likely ultimate bear market bottom. Bitcoin is still trading over 25% above that level. In previous bear markets, prices fell 24% below the realized price after the FTX collapse and 30% below it during the 2018 cycle, CryptoQuant said. After reaching those levels, bitcoin typically spent four to six months forming a base, it added.

Another factor that shows that bitcoin hasn’t yet reached a structural bottom is the large daily realized losses, CryptoQuant said. Bitcoin holders recently realized $5.4 billion in daily losses on Feb. 5 when the price fell 14% to $62,000 — the largest daily realized losses since March 2023, when they amounted to $5.8 billion, and larger than the $4.3 billion losses recorded a few days after the FTX collapse of November 2022, the firm noted. Despite the scale of the realized losses, CryptoQuant said a price bottom is not near yet.