#LUNC #LUNCPLAYBULLRUN #IfYouAreNewToBinance
Analyzing Terra Luna Classic using the full dataset provided — EMAs, MACD, inflows, volatility, burns, and sentiment.
Let’s turn that into a structured pre–March end trading plan (short-term swing framework).
📊 Current Technical Summary
Price: $0.00003510
Structure:
Above 7 / 25 / 99 EMA → short-term bullish bias
MACD bearish crossover → momentum slowing
High ATR & Std Dev → volatility expansion
Positive inflow spike → fresh liquidity entering
Interpretation:
⚖️ Bullish structure, but momentum fragile.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Support
$0.00003350 – 0.00003400 (EMA cluster zone)
$0.00003180 (recent volatility low)
Immediate Resistance
$0.00003650 – 0.00003700
$0.00003950
Psychological: $0.00004000
🟢 Entry Strategy (Before March End)
✅ Conservative Entry (Pullback Play)
Enter around:
$0.00003380 – 0.00003420
Reason:
EMA support
Better risk/reward
Lower volatility entry
Stop Loss:
$0.00003150
✅ Breakout Entry (Momentum Play)
Enter only on:
Strong 4H close above $0.00003700
Stop Loss:
$0.00003520
🎯 Take Profit Plan
TP1: $0.00003680
Short-term resistance flip
TP2: $0.00003950
Prior surge high
TP3: $0.00004200 – 0.00004500
If burn narrative + volume expands
Scale out:
40% at TP1
30% at TP2
30% runner
If:
Price closes below $0.00003150
MACD expands further negative
Inflows reverse sharply
Then next support becomes:
$0.00002800 – 0.00002900
🧠 Burn Math Reality Check
Even with:
5B monthly burns
200M weekly burns
Supply is still ~5.46 trillion.
Burns are bullish short term (catalyst),
but not strong enough yet for exponential repricing.
📈 Probability Model (Short-Term)
Until March end:
55% probability: Range between 0.000032 – 0.000040
30% probability: Push toward 0.000042+
15% probability: Breakdown below 0.000030
🧩 Smart Position Sizing
Because volatility is elevated:
Risk only 1–3% of total capital per trade
Avoid heavy leverage
Take partial profits aggressively
Final View
LUNC right now is:
📌 Sentiment-supported
📌 Burn-catalyst sensitive
📌 Technically recovering
📌 Structurally still supply-heavy
This favors swing trades, not long-term moon bets.
