Tariffs just flipped from revenue tool… to liability.
The Supreme Court ruling against Trump-era tariffs could force the U.S. government to refund $150B+ to importers.
That’s not just political.
That’s macro liquidity.
Here’s why this matters:
Tariffs act like a hidden tax.
Companies pay → consumers absorb → inflation stays sticky.
If refunds happen and tariffs are removed:
• Import costs drop
• Inflation pressure eases
• Corporate margins improve
• The Fed gains room to cut
And that’s where markets react.
The Fed has been stuck between weak growth and stubborn inflation.
Lower tariff pressure could tilt the balance toward earlier or deeper rate cuts.
But there’s a second layer most aren’t watching:
Refunding $150B creates a fiscal hole.
Higher deficits → more Treasury issuance → potential upward pressure on yields.
So we have two opposing forces:
Disinflationary impulse (risk-on supportive)
vs
Deficit expansion (yield-sensitive, USD reactive)
Now about Trump’s “backup plan”:
The ruling removed speed — not power.
Section 232 and 301 tariffs are still available.
Sector-by-sector trade pressure can continue.
What changes is scale and immediacy.
Broad, instant tariffs are harder.
Targeted, slower tariffs remain viable.
This shifts uncertainty from “shock policy” to “gradual friction.”
Trade Thought / Decision Framework:
If inflation expectations cool and yields soften → risk assets benefit.
If deficits push long-end yields higher → watch pressure on equities and crypto.
Key reaction zones: US10Y behavior, DXY structure, and equity breadth.
Acceptance vs rejection at those macro levels will define direction.
This is macro positioning — not prediction.
Are you watching yields… or just headlines?
#WhenWillCLARITYActPass #StrategyBTCPurchase #PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking
