Goldman Sachs says the biggest oil supply shock in history has NOT hit the system yet.
Read that again.
THE BIGGEST OIL SUPPLY SHOCK IN HISTORY
And markets are NOT pricing what comes next.
That's why this chart matters so much.
Crude stocks still look fine.
But oil in transit just COLLAPSED.
Global oil in transit falling from 1,700M barrels to 1,420M barrels.
That's $30.5 BILLION of crude disappearing from the water.
So the full panic has NOT started yet.
That is the part most people miss.
As long as inventories still look okay, markets can pretend this is temporary.
But if Hormuz does NOT reopen soon, those inventories start getting burned down fast.
And once that starts, the pricing changes completely.
IEA already released a record 400 MILLION barrels from emergency reserves.
At $109 oil, that's $43.6 BILLION.
And even that has NOT fixed the problem.
Now connect the dots.
Reuters says the global oil market already lost about 8 MILLION barrels per day in March.
That's the largest disruption in history.
OPEC output also dropped 7.3 MILLION barrels per day in March to 21.57 MILLION.
That's the lowest since June 2020.
And the futures market is already telling you the same thing.
WTI for immediate delivery just traded at a $16.70 premium over next month.
That's the largest premium ever.
Read that again.
The market is paying almost anything for barrels RIGHT NOW.
So the point is simple.
Countries still have inventories.
But the oil that keeps those inventories from draining is disappearing.
And if Hormuz stays shut, stocks get spent, oil pumps harder, and the whole inflation story comes back at once.
- Higher diesel.
- Higher shipping.
- Higher power costs.
- Higher inflation pressure.
And that's NOT bullish for any market that needs cheap energy and easy money to survive.
That's why Goldman’s warning matters so much.
The biggest oil supply shock in history has NOT fully spread through countries yet.
But if it does, this will NOT stay an oil story.
It becomes a full COST shock.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
#USNFPExceededExpectations #USJoblessClaimsNearTwo-YearLow #DriftProtocolExploited #ADPJobsSurge #GoogleStudyOnCryptoSecurityChallenges
