Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is extending its 2-month consolidation since the February 02 Low, receiving a small boost by the 2-week ceasefire deal. This boost wasn't enough to even test the March High, so the long-term bearish outlook remains intact.
BTC has been within a 6-month Bear Cycle and most likely has another 6 months left. The Fibonacci Channel since 2018 shows that each Bear Cycle extended between at least five Fib levels: 2018 between 0.786 - 0.0 and 2022 between 1.0 - 0.382. The 2022 one was -7% less than 2018, so if this holds we are looking at the current Bear Cycle to bottom after completing a -70% total decline.
This matches perfectly the 0.382 Channel Fib and the 1W MA500 (black trend-line), which is the next MA support after the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) which was where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed and two below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) which as where the 2018 one bottomed.
As a result, we expect Bitcoin's next Low to be around $47000 (1W MA350) with a final bottom around $38000 (1W MA500) being possible but depends on circumstances that we will monitor weekly and update here when needed.
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