Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke its 6-month bearish streak in March and is now putting together an impressive rally this month, alongside stocks. However, this still fits typical bear market behavior. Even if April closes green, it wouldn't be the first time BTC saw two consecutive green months during a bear cycle – we've seen it before: May–June 2014 and February–March 2022.
So we remain within standard bear cycle boundaries. The 1M RSI and 1M LMACD confirm this – historically, these are the most reliable indicators for Bitcoin cycles. As the chart shows, BTC has bottomed each time the 1M RSI touched the 15-year descending trendline support (green circles). The current rally is happening well above that level, meaning the bear cycle hasn't bottomed yet.
Meanwhile, the 1M LMACD remains elevated with no bullish cross in sight. Its April histogram bar has turned light red – but even if that holds through month-end, it wouldn't be the first time a light red bar appeared before the cycle bottom (it also happened in October 2022).
Additionally, since the January 2015 bottom, each bear cycle low has occurred 1,430 days (roughly 47 months) after the previous one. If that pattern repeats, the next bottom won't arrive before October 2026. On top of that, price is currently hovering just above the 1M MA50 (blue line), which broke during the last bear cycle – with BTC ultimately bottoming on the 1W MA350 (orange line). Technically, this time it could fall as low as the 1M MA100 (red line). Taken together, these suggest a bottom (buy) zone between $50,000 and $40,000.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you find this analysis useful!
#BTC #BitcoinPriceTrends #bitcoin
