And America's top economists just warned it is about to cross the danger zone again.
US inflation is at 3.8% right now. Three months ago America's top economists forecast it would be at 2.7% by now. They just revised that forecast to 6% for this quarter.
That is the single largest upward revision in the history of the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Every single time inflation has crossed 4% in the last 55 years, the stock market crashed:
- 1970: CPI hit 6%, S&P crashed 36%
- 1974: CPI hit 12.3%, S&P crashed 48%
- 1987: CPI hit 4.5%, S&P crashed 33%
- 2001: CPI hit 3.5%, S&P crashed 36%
- 2008: CPI hit 5.5%, S&P crashed 52%
- 2022: CPI hit 9.1%, S&P crashed 25%
Every single time the same chain reaction. Inflation crosses 4%, the Fed keeps rates high, borrowing gets expensive, earnings fall, stocks crash.
Where things stand today:
- CPI: 3.8% in April, highest since May 2023
- Energy: +17.9% year over year
- Gasoline: +28.4% year over year
- Fuel oil: +54.3% year over year
- Real wages: down 0.3% annually
- Gas at the pump: $4.50 today vs $3.14 a year ago
Before the Iran war started on February 28, inflation was at 2.4%.
It jumped to 3.3% in March. Then 3.8% in April. EY is already forecasting it crosses 4% in May.
Oil is only 5% of the CPI basket. But it is 6 times more volatile than almost every other category. And it is embedded in everything, transportation, food production, plastics, electricity.
When oil stays elevated, everything else follows.
We saw this exact sequence in early 2021. Oil rose first while every other inflation component was flat.
Then one by one they all followed. That move sent CPI from 2% to 9.1% by 2022.
Food prices are already up 3.2% year over year. The USDA is forecasting food prices rise another 2.9% in 2026.
That number was set before oil crossed $100. It will be revised higher.
The 1970s had three waves of inflation.
Wave 1 peaked at 6%. Wave 2 hit 12%. Wave 3 hit 15%.
Each time the Fed eased too early thinking inflation was over. Each time it came back stronger than before.
CPI fell from 9.1% in 2022 all the way to 2.4% in January 2026. Everyone assumed inflation was dead. It is now back at 3.8% and the country's top economists are forecasting 6% this quarter.
The Fed cannot cut rates. Inflation is at the exact same level it was before every major bear market in the last 55 years.
History has a very consistent answer for what comes next
