Betting markets and big-dollar crypto-linked PACs turned Texas’ runoff elections into a high-stakes contest for the digital-asset industry’s future. Prediction market Kalshi processed more than $16 million in total volume on the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, handing “crypto-linked” candidate Ken Paxton a 96% chance of defeating incumbent John Cornyn heading into Tuesday’s vote. Kalshi also consistently favored Democrat Christian Menefee in the Houston-area 18th congressional district Democratic runoff, holding his odds near 91% since February. Rival platform Polymarket showed broadly similar probabilities for both contests. Two political action committees with ties to major crypto firms poured millions into advertising across the pair of runoffs. Protect Progress — affiliated with the Fairshake PAC that has backing from Ripple and Coinbase — reported $5 million in ad spending supporting Menefee and another $2.8 million on spots attacking his Democratic rival, Green, whom the PAC described as “actively hostile” to digital assets. Menefee was also publicly endorsed by the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a committee backed by Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs, although that group had reported no expenditures as of Monday. Not all of Protect Progress’s ads were overtly about crypto: at least one spot criticized Green for opposing former President Donald Trump without mentioning blockchain or digital assets. A local commentator told FOX26 they’d seen as many as 12 Protect Progress TV commercials in a single day and noted the overlap between that PAC’s funders and prominent backers of Trump. On the Senate side, a separate group, the Fellowship PAC — backed by Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage — disclosed a $500,000 expenditure supporting Paxton. That filing came roughly 24 hours after Trump endorsed Paxton and criticized Cornyn for a slow embrace of his presidential bid. Texas voters cast ballots Tuesday in the two runoffs — the statewide Republican showdown for the US Senate (Paxton vs. Cornyn) and the Democratic primary in the Houston-area 18th district (Green vs. Menefee). The results matter beyond state politics: who holds these seats will help shape the balance of power in Congress when the new session begins in 2027, and the crypto industry has a clear stake. The current Republican-led Congress has already passed crypto-friendly measures, including the stablecoin GENIUS Act, so which lawmakers take office could influence the next wave of policy. (Reporting note: prediction-market odds and PAC spending figures as reported publicly; ad-appearance observations were reported on local TV.) Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news