Markets love a shiny new thing.

$SPACEX officially trades today and everyone's expecting a big pop from the IPO price. The FT's front page nails the mood: "Out with the old, in with the new."

This is where things get interesting — and dangerous.

IPO pops aren't free money. They're usually a sign that the company left cash on the table, or that retail got overexcited and institutions are ready to sell into the hype. Remember: the insiders and early investors have been waiting years for this exit. You're the liquidity.

Don't get me wrong — $SPACEX is a real business with real revenue and a genuine moat. But "bracing for a big pop" is not an investment thesis. It's speculation dressed up as inevitability.

If you're buying today, ask yourself: am I buying because I believe in the long-term value, or because I'm afraid of missing out on the first-day move? One of those reasons will cost you money.

The best IPO opportunities are usually not on day one. They're six months later when the hype fades, the lock-up expires, and the stock gets boring. That's when you find out if it's actually worth owning.

Patience beats FOMO. Every single time.