This won’t show up in any Wall Street “research notes” (because it would ruin the vibes)
Everyone’s arguing which domino falls first: Japan, private credit, mega-cap equities, or the consumer.
Wrong question.
After 400+ hours spelunking through funding-market data (the kind that makes normal people touch grass), here’s the plot twist:
All four risks share the same hidden Achilles’ heel:
FX dislocations + repo market stress.
When that channel spikes, the dominoes don’t fall one-by-one like a cute TikTok chain…
They fall all at once, in a few days. Like a group chat collapsing after one “we need to talk.”
The warning lights are already blinking like a cursed Christmas tree:
Treasury fails: $30.5B last week (highest in 8 years)
Translation: settlement is doing the “sorry I’m late” routine… a lot.
Fed RRP buffer: basically drained (from ~$2.4T to near zero)
From “emergency запас” to “two coins and a receipt.”
Japan hedge ratios: lowest in 14 years
Less armor. More vibes. Bad timing.
Public BDCs: pricing 10–15% defaults vs ~2% reported
Market: “It’s 15%.” Reports: “It’s 2%.” Somebody’s lying.
Subprime auto credit: 15.78%, above 2008 highs
Car loans are acting like it’s 2008 — but with better camera quality.
Consensus sees four separate problems.
I see one big red button labeled: “DO NOT PRESS.”
My call (aka the “save this post” part):
If JPY/USD basis widens past -75 bps for 5+ days before Mar 31, 2026, expect a synchronized selloff across Japan, private credit, and equities within 72 hours.
Not dominoes in sequence.
More like: everything hits the floor together.
Key dates (aka the calendar invites nobody asked for):
BoJ: Jan 22–23, 2026
Fed: Jan 28–29, 2026
Japan fiscal year-end: Mar 31, 2026
Most people are watching the wrong indicator.
Congrats — now you’re watching the right one.
Bookmark this. Set a reminder. Let’s see. $BTC 😭📉
