#美联储2026降息预期
As global markets look beyond short-term volatility and into the medium-term policy horizon, one question dominates macro discussions: Will the Federal Reserve be cutting rates or hiking them in 2026?
Based on current market pricing, institutional forecasts, and official Federal Reserve signaling, the answer is becoming increasingly clear. Rate cuts are far more likely than rate hikes in 2026, with only a small minority arguing otherwise.
Let’s break down the evidence — and the logic behind it.
Market Consensus: Rate Cuts Are the Base Case
Across Wall Street and global financial institutions, the dominant narrative for 2026 is monetary easing, not tightening.
🐮 Major banks strongly favor rate cuts
Several leading investment banks have publicly outlined expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026:
Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley expect two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points
Citigroup is even more dovish, projecting three cuts totaling 75 basis points
The Federal Reserve’s own dot plot suggests at least one 25 basis point cut in 2026
These forecasts are not speculative optimism — they are grounded in evolving macroeconomic conditions.
The Core Logic Behind Rate Cut Expectations
1️⃣ Inflation Is Gradually Converging Toward 2%
While inflation remains a key risk variable, the broader trend points toward stabilization rather than re-acceleration. As supply chains normalize and demand cools, inflation pressures are expected to align closer to the Fed’s 2% target, reducing the justification for restrictive policy.
2️⃣ Labor Market Momentum Is Softening
Although employment remains resilient, leading indicators suggest cooling job growth and easing wage pressures. A softer labor market typically strengthens the case for policy easing — especially when inflation risks are contained.
3️⃣ Leadership Transition at the Federal Reserve
A crucial structural factor is often overlooked:
📅 The Federal Reserve Chair transition scheduled for May 2026
Markets widely expect a more dovish policy stance following the leadership change, which could accelerate the shift toward accommodative monetary policy. Historically, leadership transitions often bring subtle but meaningful changes in risk tolerance and policy philosophy.
The Minority View: Hold or Hike
💥 A small group remains cautious — or outright hawkish
HSBC and Standard Chartered expect rates to remain unchanged through 2026
Macquarie Bank stands alone with an aggressive forecast, projecting a possible rate hike in Q4 2026
The reasoning behind these views includes:
Concerns over technical distortions in inflation data
The possibility that the neutral rate (r*) is structurally higher
Fear that markets are underestimating long-term inflation persistence
However, these arguments have not gained broad institutional support and remain outside the mainstream consensus.
Market Pricing Confirms the Shift
🔥 CME FedWatch data adds weight to the rate-cut narrative
According to CME’s 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Watch Tool:
The probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut by March 2026 is 47.1%
The probability of rates staying unchanged is 43.4%
This is a critical signal: markets are now pricing rate cuts as the most likely outcome, even before considering more aggressive easing scenarios later in the year.
Big Picture: Cuts Are Not Guaranteed — But Hikes Are Unlikely
❗️This does not mean rate cuts are inevitable.
Unexpected inflation shocks, geopolitical disruptions, or fiscal expansion could still alter the path.
However, based on:
Institutional forecasts
Federal Reserve signaling
Macro trends
Market-implied probabilities
📉 The balance of risk overwhelmingly favors rate cuts over hikes in 2026.
Final Take
The 2026 Federal Reserve policy outlook is shaping up as a pivot phase, not a tightening cycle. While debate remains over the number and timing of rate cuts, the broader direction is becoming increasingly clear.
🔍 Rate cuts are the consensus. Rate hikes are the exception.
