BNB ends 2025 outperforming, but the near-term setup is fragile after a >30% pullback from the ~$1,300 peak, as risk appetite fades across crypto.
Charts point to a split 2026 path: a bear-pennant breakdown could target $470–$500 by mid-2026, while the higher-timeframe “fractal” still allows a H1 rebound back toward ~$1,300 before any larger rollover.
On-chain and fundamentals send mixed signals: MVRV/cost-basis levels flag downside risk toward ~$540–$560, but whale counts look stable and network usage (low fees, stablecoin flows, early RWA growth) supports a floor—with Binance regulation still the key swing factor.

