Year ke end par markets se do bilkul different signals aa rahe hain — Bitcoin calm mode me hai, jab ke silver me volatility explode ho rahi hai. Traders clearly macro risk crypto ke bajaye metals ke through play kar rahe hain.
Bitcoin ki 30-day realized volatility pichle kuch hafton me compress ho kar mid-40% range me aa chuki hai. Ye show karta hai ke market me conviction kam hai aur price ek tight range me stuck hai. Holiday season ki thin liquidity aur recent options expiry ne bhi BTC ko sideways hi rakha hua hai.
Silver ka scene bilkul opposite hai. Uski realized volatility mid-50% tak jump kar chuki hai. Iska main reason hai strong demand + tight physical supply. Solar panels, EVs, electronics aur battery tech se silver ki demand kaafi tez ho chuki hai, jab ke supply utni fast grow nahi kar rahi.
Upar se China ne January 1 se silver exports par licensing rules announce kar diye hain, jis se physical supply aur tight hone ke signals mil rahe hain. Shanghai aur Dubai me silver prices COMEX se kaafi upar trade ho rahe hain, aur London forward curve backwardation me chali gayi hai — jo short-term scarcity ka clear sign hota hai.
Price performance bhi isi divergence ko confirm karti hai. Silver is saal 150% se zyada up hai, jab ke Bitcoin apne October ke all-time high se lagbhag 30% niche trade kar raha hai. Traders ka kehna hai ke BTC ki weakness sentiment se zyada mechanical factors ki wajah se hai — jaise spot ETF demand ka slow hona aur recent deleveraging events.
QCP Capital ke mutabiq, Bitcoin ka recent price action zyada tar positioning aur liquidity se driven hai, na ke panic selling se. Large options expiry ke baad kaafi open interest roll-off ho chuka hai, jis se capital sidelined hai aur direction clear nahi ho rahi.
Prediction markets bhi isi split ko show karte hain. Silver ke liye confidence hai ke prices elevated reh sakte hain, jab ke Bitcoin markets mostly range continuation price kar rahe hain. Zyada log expect kar rahe hain ke BTC short term me support hold kare, lekin strong breakout ke chances abhi low lag rahe hain.
Bottom line: year-end par volatility crypto se zyada metals me shift ho chuki hai. Jab tak liquidity aur conviction wapas nahi aati, Bitcoin quiet reh sakta hai — aur silver macro risk ka main playground bana rahega.
#BTC #Altcoins #BinanceSquare #CryptoUpdates #MerryBinance
