Forget distant forecasts — the real stress test is much closer than most realize.
Here’s the issue in plain terms 👇
📌 Cheap debt is expiring
During the zero-rate era, the U.S. Treasury issued trillions in ultra-low-cost debt. That debt is now hitting maturity — and it must be refinanced at much higher interest rates.
🔥 The numbers behind the pressure
• ~$4T+ of Treasury debt matures in 2026 alone
• Estimates suggest $7T–$12T rolls over across 2025–26
• Nearly one-third of all publicly held U.S. debt faces refinancing in this window
📈 Why this matters
Debt once costing ~1–2% will be replaced at 4%+ yields.
Every 1% rise in average rates adds hundreds of billions to annual interest costs.
💰 Interest expense is already exploding
The U.S. is nearing $1 trillion per year in interest payments — and that number is still climbing. Interest is becoming one of the fastest-growing line items in the federal budget.
⚠️ Bottom line
This isn’t a theory. It’s locked into the maturity schedule.
2026 is where fiscal stress, liquidity decisions, and market reactions collide.
Watch bonds. Watch rates. Watch liquidity.
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