1. Chart Pattern / Price Action Logic
Primary structure:
Rounded bottom / bowl formation after a sustained downtrend.
Price swept liquidity below prior lows and reacted strongly from a higher-timeframe demand zone (green entry zone).
Clear impulsive bullish candle breaking short-term structure → indicates demand absorption + momentum shift.
Key price action confluences:
Rejection from demand with long lower wicks
Break of minor descending structure
Strong bullish displacement (momentum candle)
Target aligned with prior supply / resistance zone near 2.15–2.20
This is a mean reversion + trend reversal continuation setup, not a pure breakout trade.
2. Stop-Loss Level
Logical stop-loss (invalidation point):
Below the demand zone & recent swing low
📍 Stop-loss: 1.78 – 1.80 USDT
Why:
A close below this level invalidates the demand zone
Breaks the rounded bottom structure
Confirms sellers still control the market
3. Target Levels (Proper Risk–Reward)
Conservative Target (TP1)
📍 2.15 USDT
Previous structure resistance
Fair Value Gap / imbalance fill
Reaction area already shown on chart
Aggressive Target (TP2)
📍 2.30 – 2.35 USDT
Next supply zone
Prior breakdown level
Psychological resistance
4. Risk–Reward Calculation (Approx.)
Entry: ~1.88
Stop: ~1.78
Risk: ~0.10
TP1 (2.15)
Reward ≈ 0.27
R:R ≈ 1 : 2.7
TP2 (2.30)
Reward ≈ 0.42
R:R ≈ 1 : 4.2
This is a high-quality asymmetric trade.
5. Probability of Profit (Estimated)
No setup is guaranteed, but based on structure, momentum, and location:
📊 Estimated probability: 60–68%
Reasoning:
Higher-timeframe demand respected ✅
Momentum confirmation present ✅
Clear invalidation level ✅
Target aligns with liquidity & structure ✅
Probability increases further if:
Daily candle closes above 2.00
Volume expands on continuation
BTC remains stable or bullish
Setup type: Rounded bottom + demand zone reversal
Stop-loss: 1.78–1.80
Target: 2.15 (TP1), 2.30+ (TP2)
Risk–Reward: 1:2.7 to 1:4+
Estimated win rate: ~65%
If you want, I can also:
Refine entries (scaling vs single entry)
Adapt this for lower timeframes
Compare with BTC/XRP correlation before entry
