📍 Trade Bias
Bearish continuation (short)
🔴 Stop-Loss
94,600 – 94,750
Above the range high + liquidity sweep wick
Invalidation if price reclaims and holds above this zone
🎯 Targets (with Risk–Reward)
Assuming short entry around 93,900 – 94,000
Target
Level
Logic
R:R
TP1
93,200
Range low / equal lows
~1 : 1.2
TP2
92,750 – 92,800
Liquidity pool + imbalance
~1 : 2.2
TP3 (stretch)
92,200
HTF demand / prior breakout
~1 : 3+
👉 Best practice: Partial at TP1, move SL to breakeven, trail for TP2/TP3.
📉 Chart Pattern / Price Action Logic
Distribution / Bearish range breakdown
Lower highs + equal lows → liquidity grab
Strong bearish displacement from range midpoint
Price respecting VWAP / intraday opens as resistance
Recent bullish spike was a stop-hunt, not acceptance (long upper wick rejection)
This is classic “range → manipulation → expansion” to the downside.
📊 Probability of Profit
≈ 60–65%
Increases to ~70% if:
BTC fails to reclaim 94k
Follow-through volume appears below 93,200
⚠️ Probability drops sharply if price accepts above 94,600.
🧠 Trade Management Notes
Do not chase breakdown candles
Ideal entry is pullback to 93,900–94,100
Avoid holding if BTC dominance flips bearish suddenly (alt strength risk)
