Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has always priced its bottom below its Realized Price (red trend-line) on every signal Bear Cycle it had.
In fact the bottom was considerably lower than the Realized Price. The last two Bear Cycles (2022 and 2018) have had fairly similar bottoms, dropping by -33.80% and -35.45% respectively from the moment the price broke below the Realized Price.
Based on where the Realized Price is now (which by the time BTC hits it, will be lower) a rounded up -30% decline would have us reach $39000. The Realized Price deviation band (orange cloud) however would be just under $45000 towards the end of the year (which is roughly when we expect the Bear Cycle to end)
As a result, a fair bottom zone could be $45000 - $39000.
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