Bitcoin's price may experience another extended period of consolidation if it fails to reclaim crucial support levels. According to Cointelegraph, a new analysis highlights that Bitcoin is currently caught between significant cost-basis levels, suggesting a potential repeat of the 2022 consolidation phase unless these support levels are regained. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of $708.7 million, marking their fifth-largest since inception, indicating institutional caution.
In its Jan. 21 newsletter, "The Week Onchain," onchain data provider Glassnode identified key resistance areas that are limiting upward momentum and leaving rallies susceptible to distribution. The BTC/USD pair has been fluctuating within a broad range defined by the True Market Mean at $81,100 and the short-term holder (STH) cost-basis at $98,400. Glassnode noted that the recent rejection near the STH cost basis at $98,400 mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022, where repeated failures to reclaim recent buyers’ cost basis led to prolonged consolidation. This similarity underscores the fragility of the current recovery attempt.
Glassnode's Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which indicates the prices at which current Bitcoin UTXOs were created, also revealed a wide and dense supply zone above $100,000 that is gradually maturing into the long-term holder cohort. This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts above the $98.4K STH cost basis and the $100K level. A clean breakout would require a meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum.
The Bitcoin "Risk Index" has climbed to 21, just below the High Risk zone of 25, according to private wealth manager Swissblock. This increase suggests a likely continuation of the consolidation phase triggered by the 'Massive High Risk' environment experienced in recent months. As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin must overcome resistance at $98,000-$100,000 to revive the bull market cycle.
On Wednesday, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows for the third consecutive day, totaling $708.7 million, according to CoinGlass data. This marked their largest single-day exit in two months and the fifth-largest withdrawal since their launch in January 2024. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, posted the biggest outflows of $356.6 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with $287.7 million, alongside four other funds that saw outflows. Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $286.9 million across five funds. The last three days witnessed a historic $1.58 billion exit from Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the charge in heavy institutional de-risking. The selling pressure from spot BTC ETFs coincided with the rejection at $90,000 amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty, increasing the likelihood of rangebound price action or further downside if the support at $84,000 breaks.
