We are watching a historic shift in real-time. If you aren't paying attention to the macro data coming out of early 2026, you're flying blind. The "De-dollarization" narrative is moving from a theory to a mathematical reality.
📉 The Dollar's Silent Bleed
The USD struggled through 2025, ending the year with some of its worst performance in nearly a decade. While mainstream media calls it a "market cycle," the charts tell a different story. We are seeing:
• Repo Stress: The Fed's emergency facilities are showing spikes that echo the pre-2008 era.
• The Sahm Rule: We’ve been flirting with the 0.35% – 0.50% danger zone, a historical signal that a recessionary floor is shifting.
• Asset Ratios: The S&P 500 to Gold ratio is testing levels that suggest "risk-off" is the only play left.
🏛️ Political Chaos & The Fed
The headlines on January 11 weren't just noise. The DOJ opening a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over Fed renovation costs is an unprecedented escalation. Powell himself has hinted this is political pressure for resisting rate cuts.
The Takeaway: When the central bank and the White House are in an open war, the currency is the first casualty. With another government shutdown looming this week, the "safety" of the dollar is a myth.
💣 The $18 Trillion Debt Wall
The math simply doesn't hold up anymore:
• Commercial Real Estate: Over $930B in CRE debt matures this year. With rates still high and valuations tanking, banks are sitting on a powder keg.
• Consumer Cracking: Household debt has ballooned to roughly $18.5T. Credit card delinquencies (90+ days past due) are at their highest levels since 2011.
• Bankruptcy Surge: We’re seeing a 12% Year-over-Year increase in filings. Middle-market companies can no longer afford to breathe.
🌍 The New World Order
The real "black swan" isn't a crash—it's the transition. In 2026, the shift in trade settlement between the BRICS nations is no longer a "potential threat"—it’s happening. When the US has to handle $1T in interest payments alone, they have two choices: inflate the currency into oblivion or let the system snap.
🛡️ How to Position Yourself
I’ve spent 10 years studying these cycles. I called the BTC tops and I’m calling this now: The biggest wealth transfer in history is accelerating. If you're still holding 100% in USD, you're betting on a sinking ship. Diversify into hard assets, watch the liquidity levels, and stay liquid in the right places.
I’ll be posting the warning signs here BEFORE they hit the mainstream news.
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#macroeconomy #usd #bitcoin #DeDollarization #RussiaChinaTrade #BRICS #GlobalShift #MultipolarFinance
