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btc
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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
#btc 📊 Анализ BTC на ближайшие 72 часа
* 🔴 55% вероятность — Bitcoin останется под давлением и будет торговаться в диапазоне 58 000–60 500 $.
* 🟡 30% вероятность — возможен отскок к 61 500–63 000 $, если покупатели станут активнее.
* 🟢 15% вероятность — сильный рост выше 64 000 $, но для этого потребуется мощный позитивный катализатор.
* 🔴 55% вероятность — Bitcoin останется под давлением и будет торговаться в диапазоне 58 000–60 500 $.
* 🟡 30% вероятность — возможен отскок к 61 500–63 000 $, если покупатели станут активнее.
* 🟢 15% вероятность — сильный рост выше 64 000 $, но для этого потребуется мощный позитивный катализатор.
🚨 URGENT $BTC SIGNAL UPDATE‼️🚨
Everyone, listen carefully BTC is still showing a clear bearish structure on the higher timeframes.
The recovery from $57.8K is weak and looks like a bear-flag retracement, while price continues to form lower highs and lower lows. Sellers remain in control.
My TRADE PLAN IS VERY SIMPLE
📉 Direction: SHORT
🎯 Entry Zone: $59,000–$60,000
Keep stop loss above 62000 for midterm and those who just want small scalp can use sl above 61k
TP1: $58,250
TP2: $57,820
TP3: $57,300
In midterm it can move towards 55-56k but it can take a retracement towards 60,800 again before dump
Midterm Targets
$56,000
$55,000
I'm not expecting a direct move toward $67K this week.
Follow and detailed discussion shall be shared in premium soon
#OilPriceFalls #TaiwanPassesVirtualAssetServicesAct #CircleRemovedFromRussellGrowthIndexes #BTC
Everyone, listen carefully BTC is still showing a clear bearish structure on the higher timeframes.
The recovery from $57.8K is weak and looks like a bear-flag retracement, while price continues to form lower highs and lower lows. Sellers remain in control.
My TRADE PLAN IS VERY SIMPLE
📉 Direction: SHORT
🎯 Entry Zone: $59,000–$60,000
Keep stop loss above 62000 for midterm and those who just want small scalp can use sl above 61k
TP1: $58,250
TP2: $57,820
TP3: $57,300
In midterm it can move towards 55-56k but it can take a retracement towards 60,800 again before dump
Midterm Targets
$56,000
$55,000
I'm not expecting a direct move toward $67K this week.
Follow and detailed discussion shall be shared in premium soon
#OilPriceFalls #TaiwanPassesVirtualAssetServicesAct #CircleRemovedFromRussellGrowthIndexes #BTC
Michiko Loghry n1CG:
hello
📈 Большого падения, скорее всего, уже не будет.
Пока многие ждут снижения, крупные компании и институциональные инвесторы продолжают накапливать Bitcoin. Именно «умные деньги» часто заходят тогда, когда большинство сомневается.
Конечно, коррекции возможны, но долгосрочный тренд всё больше поддерживается крупным капиталом. 🚀₿
#btc
Пока многие ждут снижения, крупные компании и институциональные инвесторы продолжают накапливать Bitcoin. Именно «умные деньги» часто заходят тогда, когда большинство сомневается.
Конечно, коррекции возможны, но долгосрочный тренд всё больше поддерживается крупным капиталом. 🚀₿
#btc
BTC底部到底在哪？4万还是5.5万，市场正在争论这件事
近期，市场对比特币本轮调整的底部出现了两种截然不同的观点。
一种认为，55000-57000美元将是本轮周期的重要支撑；另一种则认为，BTC 不排除在第四季度回落至40000-46000美元。
看似只差一万多美元，实际上代表着两种完全不同的市场逻辑。
看多的一方认为，比特币的平均持仓成本目前集中在53000-55000美元附近。历史经验来看，当价格接近大部分投资者的成本区时，市场往往会出现较强承接，因此这里更容易形成阶段性底部。
而看空的一方则认为，如果BTC跌破这一区域，并持续运行在成本线下方，那么市场可能进入更深层次的熊市。
不过，这种情况在历史上并不常见。
此前两次长期跌破成本线，都伴随着重大外部事件，例如行业黑天鹅带来的恐慌性抛售。而从目前来看，市场还没有出现类似级别的风险因素。
因此，4万美元的预期并非没有可能，但它需要新的重大利空作为催化。
对于当前行情来说，更值得关注的不是猜底，而是观察资金是否仍在持续流入，以及关键支撑位能否守住。
市场从不会按照多数人的预期运行，但一定会尊重资金流向。
真正的机会，不是在所有人都知道答案的时候，而是在市场充满分歧、你依然能够坚持独立判断的时候。$BTC $NVDAB $XRP #BTC #BTC走势分析
近期，市场对比特币本轮调整的底部出现了两种截然不同的观点。
一种认为，55000-57000美元将是本轮周期的重要支撑；另一种则认为，BTC 不排除在第四季度回落至40000-46000美元。
看似只差一万多美元，实际上代表着两种完全不同的市场逻辑。
看多的一方认为，比特币的平均持仓成本目前集中在53000-55000美元附近。历史经验来看，当价格接近大部分投资者的成本区时，市场往往会出现较强承接，因此这里更容易形成阶段性底部。
而看空的一方则认为，如果BTC跌破这一区域，并持续运行在成本线下方，那么市场可能进入更深层次的熊市。
不过，这种情况在历史上并不常见。
此前两次长期跌破成本线，都伴随着重大外部事件，例如行业黑天鹅带来的恐慌性抛售。而从目前来看，市场还没有出现类似级别的风险因素。
因此，4万美元的预期并非没有可能，但它需要新的重大利空作为催化。
对于当前行情来说，更值得关注的不是猜底，而是观察资金是否仍在持续流入，以及关键支撑位能否守住。
市场从不会按照多数人的预期运行，但一定会尊重资金流向。
真正的机会，不是在所有人都知道答案的时候，而是在市场充满分歧、你依然能够坚持独立判断的时候。$BTC $NVDAB $XRP #BTC #BTC走势分析
金链观察:
比特币在4万还5万之间纠结，本质还是避险资金没找到方向；我这边更盯着美伊和平协议落地，油价溢价一退黄金反而更稳一些 🤔 你是等BTC探底，还是先挪点仓到黄金看看？
如果你觉得行情还要跌。
大概率不是行情坏了。
而是你忽略了最近这些数据。
$BTC 卡在 59082 美元,24h 微跌 0.85%,市场看着无惊无险,但恐慌贪婪指数只剩 11,极度恐惧区间已经趴了 25 天。
7 月美联储维持利率概率 66%,6 月非农预期回落到 8.7 万,就业一旦转弱,宽松预期随时回来。
聪明钱等的从来不是涨,而是这波人走完。
#美联储7月维持利率概率66% #恐慌贪婪指数连续25天极度恐惧 #BTC
大概率不是行情坏了。
而是你忽略了最近这些数据。
$BTC 卡在 59082 美元,24h 微跌 0.85%,市场看着无惊无险,但恐慌贪婪指数只剩 11,极度恐惧区间已经趴了 25 天。
7 月美联储维持利率概率 66%,6 月非农预期回落到 8.7 万,就业一旦转弱,宽松预期随时回来。
聪明钱等的从来不是涨,而是这波人走完。
#美联储7月维持利率概率66% #恐慌贪婪指数连续25天极度恐惧 #BTC
ETH镰刀收割机:
看指标会死的很惨，k线不会说谎，你以为是底，结果底下还有底
Самая частая ошибка с трендовыми сделками — вход на эмоции, без подтверждения структуры. 📉 Я работаю иначе.
Тренд для меня — это серия более высоких лоу и хаёв. Пока структура цела, я ищу не разворот, а откат к зоне спроса для входа по тренду.
Мой триггер входа — ретест пробитого уровня + реакция объёма/делты. Без реакции — нет сделки. Цена просто "пришла" в зону? Это ещё не сигнал, это лотерея.
Сценарий по $BTC : удерживает range low и делает ретест сверху — играю продолжение. Теряет лоу и закрепляется ниже — структура сломана, идея инвалидизирована, выхожу без споров с рынком.
R:R считаю ДО входа, а не после. Минимум 1:2, иначе пропускаю.
НФА, DYOR. Это мой сценарий, не сигнал. ⚙️
#BTC #Trading #MarketAnalysis #Crypto
🧭
Тренд для меня — это серия более высоких лоу и хаёв. Пока структура цела, я ищу не разворот, а откат к зоне спроса для входа по тренду.
Мой триггер входа — ретест пробитого уровня + реакция объёма/делты. Без реакции — нет сделки. Цена просто "пришла" в зону? Это ещё не сигнал, это лотерея.
Сценарий по $BTC : удерживает range low и делает ретест сверху — играю продолжение. Теряет лоу и закрепляется ниже — структура сломана, идея инвалидизирована, выхожу без споров с рынком.
R:R считаю ДО входа, а не после. Минимум 1:2, иначе пропускаю.
НФА, DYOR. Это мой сценарий, не сигнал. ⚙️
#BTC #Trading #MarketAnalysis #Crypto
🧭
接下来几个月币圈应该会迎来至暗时刻，熊市到目前应该已经清洗了两波人，第一波是搞DAT的，第二波是特朗普胜选之后进场的，还剩最后一波没被套住就是当时ETF进场的机构基金（起始点应该在4w-4.4w）那么最大痛点应该是跌倒这个价格附近把这轮牛市进场的这三波人全套住，同时跌破5w这个心理价位在情绪上也会给人很大的冲击，类似于上轮跌破2w给人那种绝望感。
6w肯定是撑不住的，不要觉得在这里一直插针反弹就是买盘强，参考一下黄金一路向下的走势，不停的插针但是最后依旧向下破支撑，币应该也是这个走势。
最后说下crcl，crcl也一样，不建议这里抄底，最终的目标价应该是40以下，大概率会跟着币同时触底。
#crcl
#btc
6w肯定是撑不住的，不要觉得在这里一直插针反弹就是买盘强，参考一下黄金一路向下的走势，不停的插针但是最后依旧向下破支撑，币应该也是这个走势。
最后说下crcl，crcl也一样，不建议这里抄底，最终的目标价应该是40以下，大概率会跟着币同时触底。
#crcl
#btc
$BTC okay so I keep staring at this BTC chart and something's bugging me. price bounced off 57,800, everyone's kind of relieved, and — I don't know, it just doesn't feel like relief to me. feels more like a pause.
the moving averages are still stacked the bad way on literally every timeframe I checked. 7 under 25 under 99. hourly, 4h, daily, weekly, all of it. that's usually not what a bottom looks like, right? or wait — maybe I'm overthinking the MA order thing, sometimes it lags anyway.
what actually caught my eye was the MACD on the 4h. histogram went slightly positive after being red for what feels like forever. first time in weeks honestly. and my first reaction was oh okay maybe this is turning — but then I looked again and it's such a small flip. barely above zero. that's not really strength, that's more like… the selling just got tired for a minute?
price has basically been stuck in this tiny range for hours too. 58,530 to 58,700ish, back and forth, nothing resolving. not breaking up, not breaking down.
I remember seeing something like this earlier in the year too, a stall that everyone called a bottom and it wasn't.
still trying to figure out if this is actually different this time or if I'm just pattern matching on nothing.
#BTC #orocryptotrends #Write2Earn
the moving averages are still stacked the bad way on literally every timeframe I checked. 7 under 25 under 99. hourly, 4h, daily, weekly, all of it. that's usually not what a bottom looks like, right? or wait — maybe I'm overthinking the MA order thing, sometimes it lags anyway.
what actually caught my eye was the MACD on the 4h. histogram went slightly positive after being red for what feels like forever. first time in weeks honestly. and my first reaction was oh okay maybe this is turning — but then I looked again and it's such a small flip. barely above zero. that's not really strength, that's more like… the selling just got tired for a minute?
price has basically been stuck in this tiny range for hours too. 58,530 to 58,700ish, back and forth, nothing resolving. not breaking up, not breaking down.
I remember seeing something like this earlier in the year too, a stall that everyone called a bottom and it wasn't.
still trying to figure out if this is actually different this time or if I'm just pattern matching on nothing.
#BTC #orocryptotrends #Write2Earn
#BTC
伙伴们，我昨天给的结构一如既往的精准。
比特币市价58600+， 还是看图表1黄色区域结构：昨日跌破结构下轨后迅速反弹回踩，再向下创新低57800后拉回再次测试结构下轨但是仍然没有突破回结构，所以支阻互换，下轨的压力是真实存在的。
当下多空军应该都挺纠结，那么给个参考：
短线空军防守点就可以放在图中标记位置，下轨附近与趋势线还有斐波那契0.618位置附近也就是59500_59800区间，止损放59800保守。突破站稳这位置则看61000附近。
多军的防守位置当然是新低57800，保守下移至57580。
上方建议是短线看法，大方向还是像昨天还有之前说的，大概率还有一跌要去拿48000_53000这一块的流动性洗筹，我的btc.eth中长线空单会在这一区间全部出局。所以短期如果有反弹还有一波高空大机会。
空仓的伙伴短线操作建议：阻力位59300_400附近还可空，止损59800，止盈58000附近。
#美股超话
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
伙伴们，我昨天给的结构一如既往的精准。
比特币市价58600+， 还是看图表1黄色区域结构：昨日跌破结构下轨后迅速反弹回踩，再向下创新低57800后拉回再次测试结构下轨但是仍然没有突破回结构，所以支阻互换，下轨的压力是真实存在的。
当下多空军应该都挺纠结，那么给个参考：
短线空军防守点就可以放在图中标记位置，下轨附近与趋势线还有斐波那契0.618位置附近也就是59500_59800区间，止损放59800保守。突破站稳这位置则看61000附近。
多军的防守位置当然是新低57800，保守下移至57580。
上方建议是短线看法，大方向还是像昨天还有之前说的，大概率还有一跌要去拿48000_53000这一块的流动性洗筹，我的btc.eth中长线空单会在这一区间全部出局。所以短期如果有反弹还有一波高空大机会。
空仓的伙伴短线操作建议：阻力位59300_400附近还可空，止损59800，止盈58000附近。
#美股超话
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
金链观察:
结构确实抓得稳。补一嘴黄金那边：伊朗卡着霍尔木兹搞收费加威胁动武，油价风险溢价一顶,金价上方压力反而更沉，我这两天是偏空看待。你觉得这波是趁反弹减,还是先观望？
I bought $100k worth of more $BTC today while everyone else is panicking.
I still believe Bitcoin’s final bottom is below $55K, with $52K being the most important level I’m watching. A deeper flush toward $48K-$50K is still possible if fear accelerates.
But waiting for the perfect bottom may lead me miss the opportunity. And I think I should start buying from here because I have more than $800k capital in backup and my liquidation price is too far.
Also Bitcoin is already trading near major support between $56K-$58K. If price eventually reclaims $60K and starts pushing higher, the same people calling for lower prices today will suddenly become bullish.
The big profits are typically made by investing in fear, rather than in confirmation.
#BTC
I still believe Bitcoin’s final bottom is below $55K, with $52K being the most important level I’m watching. A deeper flush toward $48K-$50K is still possible if fear accelerates.
But waiting for the perfect bottom may lead me miss the opportunity. And I think I should start buying from here because I have more than $800k capital in backup and my liquidation price is too far.
Also Bitcoin is already trading near major support between $56K-$58K. If price eventually reclaims $60K and starts pushing higher, the same people calling for lower prices today will suddenly become bullish.
The big profits are typically made by investing in fear, rather than in confirmation.
#BTC
Md Shahid Arman:
Notice my customized MACD histogram patterns, when they turn green long open, while turning Red short open.
go to my all profile post.
feel good DM me.
Частичная правда
嘴硬身体诚实！比特币最大多头“微策略”偷偷抄底了
家人们，之前说要卖币补现金流的Saylor，转头就爆大料：今年这波熊市里，他靠数字信贷偷偷抄底了17.5万枚比特币。
嘴上说备着流动性，身体诚实疯狂囤币，BTC长期逻辑根本没变，拿好筹码别被短期波动洗下车。 #BTC $BTC
家人们，之前说要卖币补现金流的Saylor，转头就爆大料：今年这波熊市里，他靠数字信贷偷偷抄底了17.5万枚比特币。
嘴上说备着流动性，身体诚实疯狂囤币，BTC长期逻辑根本没变，拿好筹码别被短期波动洗下车。 #BTC $BTC
📉 Крипта | 1 липня
Червень - один з нaйгipшиx місяців зa ocтaннi poки
🚩BTC нaмaлювaв cтpaшнy cвiчкy
BTC зa чepвeнь пpociв нa 20% i пpoвaливcя нижчe 60к. Гipшe бyлo тiльки в 2022-мy.
Тexнapi в шoцi - нa мiсячнoмy гpaфiкy вийшлa cвiчкa «Beдмeжий Mapyбoзy»: cyцiльнe чepвoнe тiлo бeз тiнeй, пpoдaвцi дyшили pинoк вiд вiдкpиття дo зaкpиття.
Пpoгнoзи нeвeceлi: чeкaють днo y paйoнi 48-55к, a взагалі взaгaлi 40к дo кiнця poкy
🚩Iнcтитyцioнaли тиxeнькo злиняли
Cпoтoвi BTC-ETF в CШA пepeжили нaйгipший мicяць в icтopiї - вiдтiк $4,5 млрд, з ниx $3,55 млрд вiддaв caм B_l_a_ckR_ock. Aктиви в ETF пpociли зi $110 млрд дo $70,9 млрд.
🚩A тим чacoм Тpaмп нopмaльнo зapoбив
Пoки вci втpaчaли, вiн зaдeклapyвaв $1,2-1,4 млрд кpиптo-дoxoдy зa 2025 piк:
🔹$635 млн poялтi з мeмкoїнa TRUMP,
🔹$588 млн з йoгo DeFi-плaтфopми, плюc $50+ млн y BTC i ETH нa xoлoдниx гaмaнцяx.
Кpиптa пpинecлa Тpaмпy знaчнo бiльшe, нiж йoгo тpaдицiйний бiзнec y нepyxoмocтi
🚩Peгyлятopи тeж нe cплять
-Т_a_й_вaнь зaкpyтив гaйки - тeпep бipжaм пoтpiбнa лiцeнзiя, зa пopyшeння мoжнa cicти нa 10 poкiв.
-У Б_p_и_тaнiї мaйжe 1700 людeй пoдaли пoзoв пpoти B_i_n_ance нa $200 млн чepeз дepивaтиви.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅Щo мaємo зapaз
Нa 1 липня BTC тpимaєтьcя в paйoнi 58,6-59,2к, нaмaгaєтьcя cтaбiлiзyвaтиcь. Xaйп cпaв, aлe фyндaмeнтaл нaчeбтo в пopядкy.
Тpимaйтe pyкy нa пyльci i бepeжiть дeпoзити 🚀
#BTC #analysis
Червень - один з нaйгipшиx місяців зa ocтaннi poки
🚩BTC нaмaлювaв cтpaшнy cвiчкy
BTC зa чepвeнь пpociв нa 20% i пpoвaливcя нижчe 60к. Гipшe бyлo тiльки в 2022-мy.
Тexнapi в шoцi - нa мiсячнoмy гpaфiкy вийшлa cвiчкa «Beдмeжий Mapyбoзy»: cyцiльнe чepвoнe тiлo бeз тiнeй, пpoдaвцi дyшили pинoк вiд вiдкpиття дo зaкpиття.
Пpoгнoзи нeвeceлi: чeкaють днo y paйoнi 48-55к, a взагалі взaгaлi 40к дo кiнця poкy
🚩Iнcтитyцioнaли тиxeнькo злиняли
Cпoтoвi BTC-ETF в CШA пepeжили нaйгipший мicяць в icтopiї - вiдтiк $4,5 млрд, з ниx $3,55 млрд вiддaв caм B_l_a_ckR_ock. Aктиви в ETF пpociли зi $110 млрд дo $70,9 млрд.
🚩A тим чacoм Тpaмп нopмaльнo зapoбив
Пoки вci втpaчaли, вiн зaдeклapyвaв $1,2-1,4 млрд кpиптo-дoxoдy зa 2025 piк:
🔹$635 млн poялтi з мeмкoїнa TRUMP,
🔹$588 млн з йoгo DeFi-плaтфopми, плюc $50+ млн y BTC i ETH нa xoлoдниx гaмaнцяx.
Кpиптa пpинecлa Тpaмпy знaчнo бiльшe, нiж йoгo тpaдицiйний бiзнec y нepyxoмocтi
🚩Peгyлятopи тeж нe cплять
-Т_a_й_вaнь зaкpyтив гaйки - тeпep бipжaм пoтpiбнa лiцeнзiя, зa пopyшeння мoжнa cicти нa 10 poкiв.
-У Б_p_и_тaнiї мaйжe 1700 людeй пoдaли пoзoв пpoти B_i_n_ance нa $200 млн чepeз дepивaтиви.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅Щo мaємo зapaз
Нa 1 липня BTC тpимaєтьcя в paйoнi 58,6-59,2к, нaмaгaєтьcя cтaбiлiзyвaтиcь. Xaйп cпaв, aлe фyндaмeнтaл нaчeбтo в пopядкy.
Тpимaйтe pyкy нa пyльci i бepeжiть дeпoзити 🚀
#BTC #analysis
VoLoDyMyR7:
Дякую за цікаву інформацію 😉🤝👍🔥
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