🌅 GOOD MORNING TRADERS — Thursday June 25, 2026
PCE JUST DROPPED. INFLATION IS STILL HOT. 👇🔥
🧭 Overall Sentiment: RISK-OFF | USD Bias: STRONGLY BULLISH
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in hot — PCE May printed 4.1% YoY, the highest since April 2023. Core PCE hit 3.4% YoY and +0.3% MoM — the highest core reading since October 2023. Rate hike bets are surging. Dollar is king. 💵🔥
🔑 3 KEY DRIVERS RIGHT NOW
1. 🔥 PCE — IN LINE BUT STILL BURNING ✅ RELEASED
Headline PCE: 4.1% YoY ✅ | Core PCE: 3.4% YoY ✅ — both matched forecasts exactly.
Personal income +0.7% and spending +0.7% — consumer still spending aggressively.
Treasury yields slipped and stock futures held positive — markets relieved it wasn't a surprise beat. But Fed rate hike expectations for September remain firmly priced in. 📈
2. ✅ Jobless Claims & GDP — Both Solid
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K — beat the 223K estimate, down 12K from prior week. Labour market still tight.
Q1 GDP Final revised UP to 2.1% — 0.5pp above prior reading. Economy stronger than thought.
Strong jobs + strong growth + hot inflation = Fed has every reason to hike. 🏦
3. 🇯🇵 USD/JPY Intervention Watch — CRITICAL
USD/JPY rose to 161.80 — deep in intervention territory. Japan's Finance Ministry and BOJ are watching every tick. At these levels, a surprise intervention could come at any moment. Trade with extreme caution above 161.50. 🚨
📍 Also Watch:
📌 EUR/USD near 1.1325–1.1360 — one-year lows. ECB's Schnabel said "more hiking is needed" — EUR floor holding but under heavy USD pressure
📌 GBP/USD near 1.3160 — one-year low. UK political vacuum continues to weigh
📌 Gold below $4,000 — trading ~$3,980. Hawkish Fed + strong USD = double headwind. $3,960 = key support
📌 WTI near $70.00 three-month low — Hormuz reopening easing supply fears. Watch CAD & energy pairs
📌 Tomorrow June 26: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations 🎯
📍 Not financial advice. Educational content only. Manage your risk always
PCE JUST DROPPED. INFLATION IS STILL HOT. 👇🔥
🧭 Overall Sentiment: RISK-OFF | USD Bias: STRONGLY BULLISH
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in hot — PCE May printed 4.1% YoY, the highest since April 2023. Core PCE hit 3.4% YoY and +0.3% MoM — the highest core reading since October 2023. Rate hike bets are surging. Dollar is king. 💵🔥
🔑 3 KEY DRIVERS RIGHT NOW
1. 🔥 PCE — IN LINE BUT STILL BURNING ✅ RELEASED
Headline PCE: 4.1% YoY ✅ | Core PCE: 3.4% YoY ✅ — both matched forecasts exactly.
Personal income +0.7% and spending +0.7% — consumer still spending aggressively.
Treasury yields slipped and stock futures held positive — markets relieved it wasn't a surprise beat. But Fed rate hike expectations for September remain firmly priced in. 📈
2. ✅ Jobless Claims & GDP — Both Solid
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K — beat the 223K estimate, down 12K from prior week. Labour market still tight.
Q1 GDP Final revised UP to 2.1% — 0.5pp above prior reading. Economy stronger than thought.
Strong jobs + strong growth + hot inflation = Fed has every reason to hike. 🏦
3. 🇯🇵 USD/JPY Intervention Watch — CRITICAL
USD/JPY rose to 161.80 — deep in intervention territory. Japan's Finance Ministry and BOJ are watching every tick. At these levels, a surprise intervention could come at any moment. Trade with extreme caution above 161.50. 🚨
📍 Also Watch:
📌 EUR/USD near 1.1325–1.1360 — one-year lows. ECB's Schnabel said "more hiking is needed" — EUR floor holding but under heavy USD pressure
📌 GBP/USD near 1.3160 — one-year low. UK political vacuum continues to weigh
📌 Gold below $4,000 — trading ~$3,980. Hawkish Fed + strong USD = double headwind. $3,960 = key support
📌 WTI near $70.00 three-month low — Hormuz reopening easing supply fears. Watch CAD & energy pairs
📌 Tomorrow June 26: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations 🎯
📍 Not financial advice. Educational content only. Manage your risk always