$XAU 4H: Bearish Structure Ahead of High-Impact News (Fed Speech & NFP)
Bias: Bearish
📊 Market Structure & Technical Outlook
Looking at the 4H chart on OANDA, XAUUSD is currently trading inside a well-defined descending channel, printing clear lower highs and lower lows. The overall market narrative remains heavily bearish as long as price respects the upper boundary of the channel.
We have several key liquidity pools and structural imbalances that are highly likely to be targeted due to the upcoming high-impact volatility (Fed Chairman Speech & NFP):
Upside Liquidity (BSL): $$ 4026
Downside Liquidity (SSL): $$ 3959 (Internal), $$ 3928, and $$ 3890 (External)
Point of Interest (POI): Balanced Price Range (BPR 2H) aligned around the psychological level of 4,000.
📉 Trading Scenario: The Judas Swing & Expansion
Given the upcoming macro drivers, we anticipate a classic market maker model execution to engineer liquidity before the real expansion:
Phase 1 (Liquidity Sweep): Price is likely to drop initially to sweep the Internal Range Liquidity sitting just below 3,959.
Phase 2 ( Judas Swing / Retracement): A sharp post-news reaction or pre-news manipulation is expected to drive price higher to mitigate the BPR 2H (~4,000) area. This will fill the inefficient pricing and trap early breakout sellers.
Phase 3 (Bearish Expansion): If we see a valid rejection or Market Structure Shift (MSS) on lower timeframes (LTF) within the 4,000 POI, price should expand aggressively downward to hunt the major External Range Liquidity targets at 3,928 and 3,890.
⚠️ Risk Management & Execution Note
NFP Schedule Alert: Due to the US holiday on Friday, July 3rd, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released early on Thursday, July 2nd at 19:30 WIB.
Expect extreme volatility, potential slippage, and thinning liquidity on Thursday night.
Execution Strategy: Wait for a clear LTF confirmation (M5/M15 displacement and Fair Value Gap creation) inside the BPR zone before executing short positions. Always protect your capital.
Good luck, and trade safe!
Bias: Bearish
📊 Market Structure & Technical Outlook
Looking at the 4H chart on OANDA, XAUUSD is currently trading inside a well-defined descending channel, printing clear lower highs and lower lows. The overall market narrative remains heavily bearish as long as price respects the upper boundary of the channel.
We have several key liquidity pools and structural imbalances that are highly likely to be targeted due to the upcoming high-impact volatility (Fed Chairman Speech & NFP):
Upside Liquidity (BSL): $$ 4026
Downside Liquidity (SSL): $$ 3959 (Internal), $$ 3928, and $$ 3890 (External)
Point of Interest (POI): Balanced Price Range (BPR 2H) aligned around the psychological level of 4,000.
📉 Trading Scenario: The Judas Swing & Expansion
Given the upcoming macro drivers, we anticipate a classic market maker model execution to engineer liquidity before the real expansion:
Phase 1 (Liquidity Sweep): Price is likely to drop initially to sweep the Internal Range Liquidity sitting just below 3,959.
Phase 2 ( Judas Swing / Retracement): A sharp post-news reaction or pre-news manipulation is expected to drive price higher to mitigate the BPR 2H (~4,000) area. This will fill the inefficient pricing and trap early breakout sellers.
Phase 3 (Bearish Expansion): If we see a valid rejection or Market Structure Shift (MSS) on lower timeframes (LTF) within the 4,000 POI, price should expand aggressively downward to hunt the major External Range Liquidity targets at 3,928 and 3,890.
⚠️ Risk Management & Execution Note
NFP Schedule Alert: Due to the US holiday on Friday, July 3rd, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released early on Thursday, July 2nd at 19:30 WIB.
Expect extreme volatility, potential slippage, and thinning liquidity on Thursday night.
Execution Strategy: Wait for a clear LTF confirmation (M5/M15 displacement and Fair Value Gap creation) inside the BPR zone before executing short positions. Always protect your capital.
Good luck, and trade safe!