*What he’s saying:*
Markets are forward-looking. If a large number of rational traders genuinely believed there’s a 10% chance $XRP reaches $100, basic expected value math would push the current price way higher than it is.
The math: 10% × $100 = $10 expected value, ignoring time, risk, and other outcomes. So if people _actually_ held that belief, rational buyers would step in long before $10, driving price up. The fact that $XRP trades far below $10 suggests the market, in aggregate, doesn’t assign a 10% probability to $100 $XRP — at least not anytime soon.
*Key caveats:*
1. *Not a prediction* from Schwartz. He’s making a point about how efficient markets price in probability, not saying $XRP will or won’t hit $100.
2. *Assumes rationality*. Crypto markets have retail speculation, illiquidity, and sentiment swings. Price ≠ pure probability assessment.
3. *Time + discounting*. Even a 10% chance at $100 five years out wouldn’t equal $10 today. You’d discount for time, risk, opportunity cost.
So the quote is more about market psychology than a price call. It highlights that current price reflects collective belief about future outcomes, weighted by probability.
*Reminder*: Not financial advice. $XRP is volatile and subject to regulatory + market risk. Verify info via official sources #XRP
Markets are forward-looking. If a large number of rational traders genuinely believed there’s a 10% chance $XRP reaches $100, basic expected value math would push the current price way higher than it is.
The math: 10% × $100 = $10 expected value, ignoring time, risk, and other outcomes. So if people _actually_ held that belief, rational buyers would step in long before $10, driving price up. The fact that $XRP trades far below $10 suggests the market, in aggregate, doesn’t assign a 10% probability to $100 $XRP — at least not anytime soon.
*Key caveats:*
1. *Not a prediction* from Schwartz. He’s making a point about how efficient markets price in probability, not saying $XRP will or won’t hit $100.
2. *Assumes rationality*. Crypto markets have retail speculation, illiquidity, and sentiment swings. Price ≠ pure probability assessment.
3. *Time + discounting*. Even a 10% chance at $100 five years out wouldn’t equal $10 today. You’d discount for time, risk, opportunity cost.
So the quote is more about market psychology than a price call. It highlights that current price reflects collective belief about future outcomes, weighted by probability.
*Reminder*: Not financial advice. $XRP is volatile and subject to regulatory + market risk. Verify info via official sources #XRP