Bittensor TAO (TAO) is trading near $200 as institutional access grows, while its chart still points to short-term risk.

Key Points:

• Bittensor has built custody, fund administration and staking access at a pace analysts compare with early crypto leaders.

• TAO remains below its 100-day simple moving average, with $196 as first support.

• A break below that zone could shift attention toward $180 and $150, despite stronger institutional infrastructure.

TAO Infrastructure

AI market commentator aixbt said Bittensor has built much of the infrastructure needed for institutional adoption in about two years.

The comparison is notable because Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) needed roughly four to five years to reach a similar stage, according to the analyst.

BitGo now offers segregated custody for TAO, while Coinbase Custody and BNY Mellon support custody and fund administration. Grayscale also moved quickly, filing an S-1 for its TAO trust six months after launch, compared with about 17 months for its Ethereum trust.

Asset manager interest has widened as well. Bitwise filed for a TAO Strategy ETF in Apr. 2026, and FalconX, which has more than $1B in digital assets under custody, now supports subnet-level staking for Bittensor.

About 67% of circulating TAO supply is locked in staking after the protocol halving cut emissions to about 3,600 TAO per day. That reduces tokens available for trading on exchanges.

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TAO Price

The price signal is weaker than the adoption story. TAO recently traded near $202, about 73% below its late-2025 high near $600, and it remains below a falling 100-day simple moving average around $263.50.

The daily chart still shows lower highs and lower lows, which means sellers have not lost control. The RSI stood near 34.50, close to oversold territory, though higher RSI lows alongside lower price lows suggest bullish divergence.

The first level for buyers is $196, matching the prior daily low. If that area holds, TAO could attempt a move toward $220 before traders test the 100-day average near $263.50. A failed defense would leave $180 and $150 as the next downside areas. CoinCodex projected a one-month move to $150.85, which would align with a breakdown below $196 and another failed recovery attempt.

TAO’s recent history explains why the market remains cautious. The token has fallen through 2026 after peaking near $600 in late 2025, and each rebound has stalled below the last major high.

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